Welcome! This thread hopefully will fill a niche for those of us who have full time jobs that keep us busy, but still like to participate in some "safer" (relative term) momementum and position plays. You know who you are... you get the adrenaline rush at about 9:25 AM and look over your shoulder while you punch in the touchtone system (or internet site) of your discount broker! The day doesn't "really" start until 9:30, and man those Federal Holidays, just a day less to make money. *grin*
This fills a different niche than the most threads.... while some trading may be buying at 9:40 AM and selling at 2 PM, it's more of a longer term position trading. (i.e. a few days to a few weeks)
Rules are simple:
A) Stocks with a short term catalyst (i.e. splits, earnings)
B) Volatile tech stocks which are bouncing off moving averages but "usually" are in major long term upswings.
This system has worked very well for me the past few years. Back in the old days it used to be "internet stocks", but nowadays its mostly picks and shovels, wireless, B2B, et al. I don't do biotech. The analysis for me is 90% fundamental and only the most basic, rudimentary TA for entry points. As for exit points? Don't ask me.. in this crazy market I am always early on the exit. I am still in the old mind set that if it goes up 100% in 2 weeks its time to sell... (yes that was sarcastic) Almost everything I like is
"overvalued" by any measure I can think of as of early Spring 2000, but what can you do? Just sit on the sidelines? No.
I like rapid revenue growth and a business model and barries to entry.
Example: I dont like Amazon.com.. yes it has revenue growth and barries to entry, but a lousy business model to me.
These above methods had me in the "darlings" of todays stock market such as PMCS, JDSU, AMCC long before everyone "had to own" them. Yes, I lived through the b***ching on the PMCS board when it didnt move for 2 months inearly fall 99. (i.e. why does this stock suck when BRCM goes up 15% everyday) So please dont bring those sort of comments here. You can only pick the companies, you cannot control the stock prices. I was in ANAD for 3 months and gave up on it while it roasted in the split adjusted upper 20s, lower 30s. Then I sell and it goes up about 150% in 1.5 months (sound familiar? We
all have the story)
I have a basket of perhaps 80-120 stocks in my favorite long term sectors.Stocks I like for the long term, and happy to trade them short term. Make 7-10% on 2-3 day
trades, or 20-30% on a few week trade, with the occasional home runs. I keep some core positions but trade around them. 90% of trades are in stocks I'm not afraid to get "stuck" in. This means (to me) if I look away and the market tanks 15% in 4 days, I don't mind owning the stock for the longer term.
I try to play the stocks which have market caps between 1 B and 40 B.. and prefer those under 10B if possible. Obviously its easier to double a 3Billion company than a 40 Billion company (but hey its possible, see ORCL,NT, QCOM etc)
No pennies, no scam stocks, no "hot tips" just real stocks which are volatileand have an longer term upward trend.
When this thread was initially started I (1) posted option plays and
2)posted daily.. I have to cut back on both those issues. Options? Well they are risky and its your discretion.. I have both lost and made a lot of money playing them. You have to bet on both direction and time and be right, and even then sometimes you lose. Risky.
As for the schedule, well obviously as the title indicates I work full time, and then I come home and do research. I rarely post here, or on Yahoo, or anywhere nowadays where as before I used to be an avid poster. I am going to start with trying for a Sunday, Tues, Thur nite schedule of what looks potentially interesting for the next few days as entry points.
This is more of my corner of SI to keep thoughts and learn through any mistakes. Read at your own risk ;) (sorry for the length)
Mark |
