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The Internet Financial Connection, February 19, 1999
Presented by Mark Johnson, Editor of the IFC
techstocks.com
It appears exclusively on Silicon Investor
techstocks.com
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This newsletter can be viewed at
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In This Issue:
1. An Interview with "Tech Guru" Kevin Landis of Firsthand Funds
2. Advent Software
3. BE Aerospace
4. Robert Pharr of Providence Capital Management
5. Interesting Articles On The Internet by Joe Dancy
6. Highlights on SI: by Tom Taulli
7. Highlights on SI: Drilling and Oil-Field Services
8. Disclaimer
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1.
techstocks.com
Mark Johnson, Editor of the Internet Financial
Connection, provides the following interview
with Kevin Landis of Firsthand Funds
firsthandfunds.com . Landis' no-load
Technology Leaders Fund returned 78% in 1998.
In the fourth quarter of 1998 Firsthand Funds
had three of the seven best U.S. stock funds,
gaining from 58% to 97% in the quarter.
AudioInvestor.com provides an audio version
of the interview. If you would prefer to listen
to the interview, please use the link below.
audioinvestor.com
To conserve bandwidth, please use the link below to
read the interview with Kevin.
techstocks.com
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2.
techstocks.com
Advent Software is a leading provider of software
and services that automate and integrate the day
to day operations of investment organizations.
They offer a wide variety of applications on a
stand alone basis and as a suite of integrated
products. Advent's scaleable solutions include
portfolio management, trading, data warehousing,
Internet-based automated reconciliation and
client management systems.
Patrick Dalton, a portfolio manager at J.W. Burns
& Company, likes Advent as an investment for a
variety of reasons. "They have an outstanding
track record of consistently meeting or exceeding
earnings expectations," he says. Other reasons why
he likes the stock include a market dominant product
with a clear lead over the competition, a strong
backlog of orders along with a promising number of
potential contracts, and a growing client list of
big name firms including newly signed contract with
Merrill Lynch. In addition, their successful track
record of bringing new products to market should
strongly position Advent for future earnings growth.
When the market sold off last fall, investors became
concerned about Advent's earnings due to a perceived
slowdown in spending by Wall Street firms. Advent's
stock was not immune to the significant correction
in small caps and the price of their stock did drop
from the mid 30's to the low 20's. Despite of these
concerns Advent posted a very strong fourth quarter.
Patrick mentions that a prolonged pull back in the
stock market may reduce future spending, but a
strong recurring revenue stream will help to offset
that. About one third of their revenues are
recurring.
Patrick adds, "They have a dominant position in the
industry and have steadily been taking market share
away from the competition." Mr. Dalton thinks they
can grow earnings in the area of 35% over the next
several years and earn in $1.55 in 99', with their
stock hitting the mid 60's by the end of this year.
There is a thread that discusses ADVS on SI.
Subject 13168
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3.
techstocks.com
Ron Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund
muhlenkamp.com, provides the following
stock idea on BE Aerospace (BEAV 12). Below
is the write up.
BE Aerospace is an aircraft cabin interiors
maker and seat refurbisher. They control about
50% of the seat refurbishing market. Their
stock is significantly off of their 52 week
high of $34.
Several years ago when the airlines were not
making money, many planes weren't being built
or refurbished. This hurt the industry that BE
operated in. They used the weakness to their
advantage and snapped up many of their
competitors. In doing so, BE expensed many
things that auditors said, "should have been
capitalized." Last fall, their books were
restated to reflect the new accounting. "Going
forward, earnings will be a little bit less
than previously anticipated," says Ron
Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund. "It gave
investors a reason to sell their stock."
Ron adds that BE is a capital goods provider.
Any company that is even remotely related to
that area has suffered. "If you have been on
an airplane recently, you will notice that a
large number of seats need to be refurbished,"
he says. "In fact, AMR said in their annual
report that they will refurbish the interiors
in a lot of their airplanes... It is cheaper
to refurbish an airplane than to buy a new one."
Ron notes that their stock is "dirt cheap". He
figures they should earn $2.30+ for fiscal year
ending in February 00'. "Their stock is selling
at less than 6 times forward earnings and should
at least double from here."
There is a thread that discusses BEAV on SI.
Subject 8513
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4.
techstocks.com
Robert Pharr of Providence Capital Management
704-334-6600 http//www.providencecapital.com,
provides the following stock ideas.
Below is the write up.
Robert Pharr of Providence Capital Management
(who returned 51% for clients in 98), recently
eliminated his positions in the technology
sector before the pullback in that area. His
main concerns were valuation levels in the
tech area. "A number of the larger technology
companies were trading at a trailing PE's of
about twice their growth rate and we have not
seen that before... It is hard for the large
quality high tech companies to maintain those
multiples," says Robert.
About 35% of his portfolio was in the
technology area with positions dating back to
92' before cashing it all in. Robert notes that
during the handful of corrections in the
technology sector in recent years, all have
been buying opportunities without question.
Longer term he still likes; Cisco, Dell, Lucent,
EMC and Oracle but has not found an attractive
entry point yet. He has also been selling
consumer cyclical stocks, which include airlines
and retailers.
Robert uses a unique approach when investing
money and uses a top down process. He trys to get
a handle on what the economic environment will be
like going forward. That includes what sectors he
thinks will be favored in the future. Under those
sectors he looks at individual industry groups
and then looks for individual companies.
Robert has been moving into heavier cyclical
sectors which include raw and intermediate
materials. "We recently added high quality names
in those industries that have been lagging the
market," he says. Some new additions to his
portfolio include; Georgia Pacific (GP 67 3/4),
Phelps Dodge (PD 43 1/2), Chevron (CHV 77 3/8)
and Schlumberger (SLB 48 5/8). His favorite is
Schlumberger. "Despite the weakness in the oil
markets, they are still very profitable. They are
one of the premier growth companies in the world
and at current prices it is very cheap."
Schlumberger is expected to earn $1.81 in 99'.
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5.
techstocks.com
Joe Dancy, co editor of the IFC and editor
of The Lone Star Growth Investor
members.aol.com
provides the following links to Interesting
Articles On The Internet. These articles were
from a daily worldwide search of over 150
newspapers and magazines. Subscriptions to his
newsletter are FREE.
members.aol.com
INTERNET AND ELECTRONIC COMMERCE
Institutional investors look at internet stocks
techweb.com
E-commerce has come off pretty e-lousy the last
few days. From the ever-crashing servers of on-line
brokerage E*Trade to the embarrassing
pricing glitch at Buy.com
bergen.com
But online retailers are proving to be slow
learners. They know how to build a store, but most
have forgotten how to sell.
latimes.com
If there was any doubt that money-losing Internet
companies are still the sweethearts of the stock
market, recent IPOs should quash them -- for the
time being.
mercurycenter.com
Millions of people who get free e-mail services
from Yahoo, Hotmail and Excite are subject to
hacker attacks because their privacy protections
are so poor
sfgate.com
An e-tailer that hasn't even opened for business
has stumbled upon a novel but successful marketing
approach: Run a sweepstakes offering 100,000
shares of stock in the business.
nypostonline.com
USA/Lycos Interactive Networks, the newest Internet
dynamo, is betting its future on hawking books,
clothes and tickets straight to consumers, but its
rivals and investors have some doubts about that
strategy.
sfgate.com
Fifty percent of American households had a personal
computer last year, a technology market research
group reported Tuesday.
herald.com
Not only are brick-and-mortar drug-store chains
such as Rite Aid offering limited prescription refill
services online, Internet companies such as
Planet Rx (http://www.planetrx.com) and Drugstore.com
(http://www.drugstore.com) are preparing to launch
full-service online
techweb.com
SEMICONDUCTORS, Y2K, & ELECTRONICS
Chip designers leave cartoon characters, elaborate
logos -- even a wedding announcement on the product.
techweb.com
"Bad fixes," as computer professionals have taken
to calling them, are emerging as a major source of
concern as the world's computer programmers
scramble to unsnarl the Y2K problem.
chicagotribune.com
Advertising linked to searchwords -- "keywords" in
Internet parlance -- is a major source of revenue
for Web sites, but the legality of using
trademarked names hasn't been resolved in court.
bergen.com
For the first time ever, the two companies had
succeeded in producing fully functional DRAM
(Dynamic Random Access Memory) chips processed
entirely on 300 millimetre equipment instead of
the current 200 millimetre technology.
herald.com
A doomsday voice mail message predicting the end
of the world greeted some Pacific Bell customers
Thursday morning after a caller accidentally sent a
message to some voice mailbox customers in the 650
area code.
sfgate.com
MARKETS AND INVESTING
The average day trader has an average net worth of
$640,000. More than 95 percent have college degrees
and 52 percent have post-graduate degrees, mostly MBAs.
detnews.com
International fund manager steers clear of world's
current success stories.
washingtonpost.com
James Cramer is considered by some as a little,
well, too persuasive.
nypostonline.com
''There is a real risk for some people of day trading
becoming an addiction.'' Day trading, that is.
globe.com
Thorny tax issue: who is a 'trader'?
washingtonpost.com
The case for owning mutual funds managed by actual
human beings is getting weaker all the time.
washingtonpost.com
Rally for technology stocks is not over yet
nypostonline.com
It's getting harder to make money from insider
trading - the legal kind.
nypostonline.com
Little wonder that as of midweek, Morningstar
Inc. calculated that 84% of all U.S. diversified
stock mutual funds were down year-to-date. If you're
feeling a bit poorer this year, it's not your imagination.
latimes.com
The Oberweis Emerging Growth Fund and Micro Cap
Fund own stocks that have posted 90 percent gains
in earnings and sales in the last 12 months and are
expected to do the same this year.
chicagotribune.com
For nearly six months, the average stock has lost
ground. That may come as a shock to many investors
since the leading indexes, particularly the S&P 500,
are net ahead for the period.
techweb.com
ECONOMIC
Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin acknowledged today
there are ''legitimate concerns'' that overhauling
the financial services laws.
globe.com
Internet stock hype a mere blip next to money and
action in mega-marriages.
mercurycenter.com
The central bank of Japan unexpectedly cut a key
short-term interest rate in an effort to help pull
the world's second-largest economy out of its
recession.
washingtonpost.com
Maybe it doesn't matter that much if the
eighth-largest economy in the world goes
down the chute.
washingtonpost.com
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6.
The Taulli Report, Voices of SI: by Tom Taulli
For a weekly e-mail newsletter of The Taulli
Report, e-mail <mailto:tom@taulli.com>
The place to be? b2b
stocksite.com
Healtheon: Just what the doctor ordered?
stocksite.com
As an ISP, Prodigy finds new fans
stocksite.com
Investors see opportunity in Earthlink
stocksite.com
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7.
techstocks.com
Douglas Fant is an active participant at the Strictly:
Drilling and oil-field services thread on SI. He
interviews industry expert Mike Simmons, President
of Loosbrook Offshore Services. Mr. Simmons answers
questions posed by SI members, and relayed by Doug,
regarding the sector. Simmons discusses his outlook -
as an industry insider - for the sector, and comments
on some recent earnings announcements.
AudioInvestor.com features an audio version of the
interview. To listen to the article, please use the
link below.
audioinvestor.com
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8.
techstocks.com
DISCLAIMER: All information contained on this page are from the
authors cited. The information is believed to be reliable but
there is no guarantee to its accuracy. Stock ideas presented by
mutual fund managers, money managers, newsletter writers and SI
participants may be bought or sold by them anytime before or
after being presented in this newsletter. Anyone purchasing the
stock ideas above should consult a financial advisor before doing
so. The stock ideas mentioned above are not solicitations to buy
or sell but to provide people with information from many sources.
I (Mark Johnson editor of the IFC) am not paid any fees by the
above writers nor by the companies represented. The stock ideas
may represent a starting point for investors. People are
encouraged to do their own homework before buying any stock.
Neither Silicon Investor or the Internet Financial Connection
will be responsible for any loss occurring from
the purchase or sale of the above securities or any securities.
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