Complacency: "Quiet satisfaction; contentment."
This thread is for the discussion of market direction and sentiment, and anything else that happens to come to mind.
I'll post "complacency indexes" here. The indexes are intended to give a rough idea of complacency in the market, based on demand for puts and calls. The complacency indexes move between 0 and 100, with 0 representing panic and fear and 100 indicating maximum complacency and greed.
The indexes are contrary indicators. When complacency is high (over 70), the market may be overbought, and when it's low (under 30), the market could be oversold. However, the complacency indexes are based on the past, not the future, and on speculation, not science. They can reverse direction from any point, at any time. I'm one of the few market observers who can't predict the future, unfortunately.
"American life is a powerful solvent. It seems to neutralize every intellectual element, however tough and alien it may be, and to fuse it in the native good will, complacency, thoughtlessness, and optimism."
-- George Santayana, "Character and Opinion in the United States" (1920)
Note the decade. The same might be said about the market: It seeks to neutralize every element of good sense, and fuse it in the native greed or fear, complacency or pessimism. |
