I'm going to start a new thing; The Market Timer of the Week Award.
Awards Thread: Subject 52349
I will award it to anyone who makes the best, most timely call on the general direction of one of the major indexes.
It will only go to people who practice technical analysis. Everyone has an opinion; however, only a chartist can point out a specific reason for their statements that can be independently viewed by others.
Sentiment analysis will not qualify and will not be considered as a basis for the award. Sentiment is of extreme importance to market direction, but it's use is subjective and calls are made on the "gut feel" of the current level of sentiment. A wise technician looks for bullish setups when sentiment is extremely negative and bearish ones when exuberance has become irrational. Also discussion of sentiment usually digresses into "dumb long\dumb short" exchanges, of which I have read way too many.
Calling a change of trend that lasts more than 3 days and is preceded by a trend of at least three days or more is the minimum qualification. It must be based on a specific technical event such as a wave count, trendline break, or whatever. Nominate anyone who you feel made the best technical call during the week, include a link to the post or webpage in which the specific call was made. Submissions need not be from SI and can come from anywhere.
Why am I doing this? Simply so that myself and others can find out who has the "hot hand" for the moment.
Why indexes? Because trading indexes reduces "specific stock risk". This offers an advantage to the trader and to the chartist.
I'm also interested in longer term weekly or even monthly setups. Bullish on a certain sector, a commodity, or even an overseas market? Tell me why and let's talk about it.
Any bull\bear debate is considered off topic. The charts speak for themselves, so lets just post them and debate them on their technical merits.
OH Yeah......No GURU's, or Lemmmings allowed.
I haven't read Gann but his rules make pretty good sense.
Excerpted from DR. George Ures Kinky Crash page.
urbansurvival.com
"The page is a day late this week because I wanted to dig out and write down for you (paraphrased) William Gann's 24 rules for trading from his 1930 classic "The Wall Street Stock Selector". Run (don't just walk) to Amazon or Barnes & Noble and buy this book if you don't have it!"
Never risk more than 1/10th of your capital in one speculation. (*)
Use Stop Loss orders
Don't overtrade.(*)
Never let a profit run to a loss.
Don't buck the trend.
When in doubt, get out.
Trade only in active stocks. (*)
Spread risk among 4-5 issues - not just one.
Never fix your price, trade at market. (*)
Don't close positions without a good reason.
Build an emergency fund.
Never buy to get a dividend.
Never average a loss.
Never get out because you've lost patience with a position.
Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
Never cancel a stop order once you make a trade.
Avoid getting in and out too often.
Be just as willing to go short as long.
Never buy because a price is low, or sell because a price is high.
Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time.
Select stocks with a small volume of shares outstanding to pyramid on the buying side, and the ones with the largest volume of stock outstanding to sell short.
Never Hedge. Get out instead.
Never change a position without a good reason.
Avoid increasing your trading after a period of good trades.
"(*) These are areas where I have violated Gann's rules and have lost money as a result."
Some cool links:
Point and figure charts for amex sectors with interpretation.
phlx.com
A lengthy discussion of ewave by a futures trader. Some of the counts are invalid but it's still educational. They are futures charts anyway so I guess a few overlaps could be let slide.
dacharts.com
7 year chart of vxn showing rising volatility in NDX. Scroll down to find chart.
communities.msn.com |
