| My top stock pick for 2004
Dr Richard Appel
January 15, 2004
ATHLONE MINERALS LTD.
(ATH, $1.30 C.,TSX-VENTURE)
Owning shares of Athlone is a play on its exceptional management. Among its directors is David Smith. Prior to 1982, he was Vice President of Exploration for Shell Canada where he was instrumental in the discovery and development of about 15 trillion feet of natural gas. Subsequently, and prior to its sale, Mr. Smith built Lasmo Canada into a 5,000 barrel a day oil producer.
Athlone's objective is to become an important oil and natural gas producer by exploiting low risk projects that offer immediate payback or that are substantial in size. In the few months since entering the oil patch Athlone has acquired the right to earn into up to 140 sections (89,600 acres) in the Belle Fourche project in Saskatchewan. Athlone has since drilled five wells there and, using the preliminary results, have acquired an additional 35 sections (22,000 acres). They are in the process of completing and testing the wells and just closed a $4.5 C. million financing to fund further drilling.
Given Athlone's wealth of contacts in the industry, as well as $30+ oil and $5 + natural gas prices, I am confident that Athlone will bring similar important projects into the company. I first featured Athlone at $0.84 C. and own shares of the company.
The following are additional reasons that led me to choose Athlone as my "top pick", along with a more complete discussion of the company's development to date.
Due to the ascendency of China and India as well as to the depletion of the vast majority of the world's known oil and gas reserves many industry experts believe that the current natural gas and oil prices will hold. Further, they may even appear reasonable in the not too distant future. Alan Greenspan recently stated that sufficient U.S. gas supplies were in jeopardy due to their rapid depletion and the questions remaining surrounding their replacement. Additionally, only a few days ago Royal Dutch/Shell, in a surprise announcement, stated that they were reducing their proven oil and gas reserves by 20%. This immediately raised the question of the validity of the oil and gas reserves of the world's major hydrocarbon producers, and further increases the likelihood of sustained or advancing oil and gas prices.
Prior to mid-2003, Athlone's mandate was to explore for economic precious or base metal deposits. However, recognizing the potential windfall generated to the oil and natural gas industry by the oil and gas Bull Markets, Athlone's management recently astutely elected to redirect their focus to take advantage of this condition.
Athlone has advanced greatly in the brief period since I first featured the company in the October, 2003 issue of Financial Insights. Prior to the recent explosion in the prices of oil and natural gas, exploration companies were forced to use a $20 or less price per barrel of oil, and a $2.00 to $2.50 per million cubic feet (mcf) gas price, in order to determine the economics of a project. This resulted from the extended period, prior to 2000, when oil ranged between about $10 and $30 a barrel and natural gas was range bound between about $1.75 and $3.50 per mcf. Importantly, since 2000, both oil and natural gas have trended sharply higher in price and the prospects for their maintaining these lofty levels are beginning to become widely accepted in the industry. Thus, prices substantially above $20 for oil and $2.50 for natural gas are beginning to be utilized when industry experts make their various economic calculations.
During the earlier era, when the industry utilized a maximum of about $20 for oil and $2.50 for natural gas, many potential exploration plays were often rejected due to either the depth of the possible resource or for various technical reasons. In effect, they laid dormant due to the fact that the risk involved and the cost of discovery and production were not warranted due to the low gas and oil prices. This was more pronounced for natural gas because oil can be easily transported by tanker trucks while gas needs the availability of a pipeline for delivery to the purchaser. This condition can drastically impact the overall cost of a natural gas project and dictate its success or failure. Further, and for these reasons, earlier natural gas deposits were often found but were ignored. The company may have completed an economic oil well, but an accompanying natural gas resource in a different horizon was useless to them, because it may have been too expensive to move the gas to market. Now, this situation has drastically changed.
To the advantage of Athlone, during the past four or more decades, numerous wells were drilled throughout the world that found oil or natural gas. Some of these hydrocarbon discoveries were economic but many were not due to economic considerations. Today, with far higher oil and gas prices, numerous heretofore uneconomic hydrocarbon horizons have now become economic and ripe for reevaluation and possible production. This offers knowledge people a window of opportunity to return and possibly profitably complete these wells or to drill new ones with a minimum of risk. The element of risk is reduced because much information is already known from earlier performed work, which greatly increases the odds for success.
Since turning their energies towards the oil patch Athlone has already acquired two projects. Their first, the Success, is a 50% owned project with a maximum 5% royalty, into which Athlone has already drilled two wells. These were offsets to two existing oil wells that have produced over 165,000 barrels of oil. They were drilled in 1966 and 1988. Due to the close proximity of Athlone's wells to those that they offset, Athlone is presented with very little risk. If they are successful on either well they plan to drill two additional ones and will acquire as much of the surrounding land as possible. Further, if either well is economic it will immediately thrust Athlone into the select group of oil and gas producers. Yet, this project pales in magnitude and potential profitability to their second project, the Belle Fourche.
They have presently either earned into or have acquired about a 50% interest, less a 12% overriding royalty, in the mineral rights to 56 sections (36,000 acres) of land. Further they can earn a similar interest in an additional 119 sections (75,000 acres) as well as acquire further similarly prospective property in the region. Thus, if Athlone is successful with their first wells it will greatly increase the likelihood that their Belle Fourche project will develop into a major hydrocarbon play. Further, if they meet with success on their Belle Fourche project, the attention of the oil and gas industry will likely be quickly directed onto Athlone.
I have had lengthy discussions with Athlone's management in order to understand why they believe that they can obtain large oil and gas exploration projects that offer only a modicum of risk. To me they have a brilliant concept. This is because the prospects for which they are searching will already possess sufficient information from earlier drilling, that will greatly increase their likelihood for success. It is with this concept firmly in mind that I believe Athlone is striving to ferret out one or more additional significant projects. And, their potential for success to this end appears excellent as they still have little competition. This is due to the numerous overlooked hydrocarbon horizons that were earlier uneconomic but have now become wildly so because of today's $30+ oil and $5+ natural gas prices.
The market is anxiously awaiting the results of Athlone's first seven wells. If they are successful with their first Belle Fourche wells the company's future is sealed due to their already extensive land-holdings in the area. If not, given Athlone's exceptional management team and many contacts in the industry, I am confident that they will continue to bring additional projects into the company which will offer both low risk and great potential.
I publish Financial Insights. It is a monthly newsletter in which I discuss gold, the financial markets, as well as various junior resource stocks that I believe offer great price appreciation potential.
Please visit my website where you will be able to view previous issues of Financial Insights, as well as the companies that I am presently following. You will also be able to learn about me and about a special subscription offer.
CAVEAT
I expect to have positions in many of the stocks that I discuss in these letters, and I will always disclose them to you. In essence, I will be putting my money where my mouth is! However, if this troubles you please avoid those that I own! I will attempt wherever possible, to offer stocks that I believe will allow my subscribers to participate without unduly affecting the stock price. It is my desire for my subscribers to purchase their stock as cheaply as possible. I would also suggest to beginning purchasers of these stocks, the following: always place limit orders when making purchases. If you don't, you run the risk of paying too much because you may inadvertently and unnecessarily raise the price. It may take a little patience, but in the long run you will save yourself a significant sum of money. In order to have a chance for success in this market, you must spread your risk among several companies. To that end, you should divide your available risk money into equal increments. These are all speculations! Never invest any money in these stocks that you could not afford to lose all of.
Please call the companies regularly. They are controlling your investments.
Dr Richard Appel
Financial Insights
January 15, 2004
Financial Insights is a monthly newsletter in which I discuss gold, the financial markets, as well as various junior resource stocks that I believe offer great price appreciation potential.
Please visit my website where you will be able to view previous issues of Financial Insights, as well as the companies that I am presently following. You will also be able to learn about me and about a special subscription offer.
CAVEAT
I expect to have positions in many of the stocks that I discuss in these letters, and I will always disclose them to you. In essence, I will be putting my money where my mouth is! However, if this troubles you please avoid those that I own! I will attempt wherever possible, to offer stocks that I believe will allow my subscribers to participate without unduly affecting the stock price. It is my desire for my subscribers to purchase their stock as cheaply as possible. I would also suggest to beginning purchasers of these stocks, the following: always place limit orders when making purchases. If you don't, you run the risk of paying too much because you may inadvertently and unnecessarily raise the price. It may take a little patience, but in the long run you will save yourself a significant sum of money. In order to have a chance for success in this market, you must spread your risk among several companies. To that end, you should divide your available risk money into equal increments. These are all specula-tions! Never invest any money in these stocks that you could not afford to lose all of.
Please call the companies regularly. They are controlling your investments.
FINANCIAL INSIGHTS is written and published by Dr. Richard Appel and is made available for informational purposes only. Dr. Appel pledges to disclose if he directly or indirectly has a position in any of the securities mentioned. He will make every effort to obtain information from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Dr. Appel encourages your letters and emails, but cannot respond personally. Be assured that all letters will be read and considered for response in future letters. It is in your best interest to contact any company in which you consider investing, regarding their financial statements and corporate information. Further, you should thoroughly research and consult with a professional investment advisor before making any equity investments. Use of any information contained herein is at the risk of the reader without responsibility on our part. Past performance does not guarantee future results. © 2003 by Dr. Richard S. Appel. All rights are reserved. Parts of this newsletter may be reproduced in context, for inclusion in other publications if the publisher's name and address are also included for credit.
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321gold Inc
321gold.com
Select Information Exchange Inc. is America’s leading financial publication subscription agency. They have 135,000 world-wide customers which include almost every domestic as well as a great number of foreign investment institutions. They offer trial subscriptions to over 300 different investment publications that individually charge as much as $2,500 or more for an annual subscription. These include newsletters published by many of the nation’s leading stock analysts and broker-dealer firms and cover all aspects of national and global investing and money management. For the period from November 1, 2001 to October 31, 2003, Select Information Exchange selected Financial Insights, from the over 350 market letters that it monitored, as its first choice in their "Batting Average Performance" category, and number two for "Portfolio Gain Performance". They listed an annualized gain for Dr. Appel’s featured companies of 303.36%. To view Select Information Exchange visit stockfocus.com.
financialinsights.org
Athlone Minerals Ltd (C-ATH) - News Release
Hampton Court, Athlone to JV on Amoeba development
Athlone Minerals Ltd ATH
Shares issued 11,463,157 Jan 19 2004 close $ 1.60
Tuesday January 20 2004 News Release
See Hampton Court Resources Inc (C-HCR) News Release
AMOEBA NATURAL GAS PROSPECT AND CORPORATE UPDATE
Mr. R.A. McPherson of Hampton Court reports
Hampton Court has signed an agreement for development of its Amoeba gas prospect.
Hampton Court has joined Athlone Minerals for the exploration and development of the Amoeba natural gas prospect. Athlone will have a 75-per-cent working interest, and Hampton will have a 25-per-cent working interest and will be operator. Athlone will pay Hampton a total of $125,000 upon signing the joint participation agreement for its share of a geological study of the Amoeba prospect, a $10,000 prospect fee for each section selected to drill and a 3-per-cent gross overriding royalty (GORR) on 100 per cent of all gas production obtained.
The Amoeba prospect is located within the Western Canada sedimentary basin and encompasses an area in excess of 250,000 hectares.
This transaction is subject to approval of all regulatory bodies governing public companies.
Corporate progress overview
For health reasons, Donna Rud has resigned her position as an officer and director of the corporation, effective Jan. 20, 2004. Deborah Pratt, the company's longest standing employee, has been appointed corporate secretary effective Jan. 21, 2004. Hampton Court intends to appoint another director once an appropriate candidate is found.
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