The Central Banks are expected to deal with the global mortgage through reflation and many believe the public is about to get reunited with their long lost love affair with PMs.
I started this thread to keep the oil sands info separate from the metals. (This thread is about PMs and BMs). I will update this header going forward. If anyone is interested in contacting me the email is sioilsands@yahoo.com
For now, the files are located here:
finance.groups.yahoo.com
Warrant Values:
canadianwarrants.com
Stockchase is a great website for us to keep track of what the experts are saying (thanks to a kind contributor)
stockchase.com
For this one change the date to the most recent Friday to update:
smartinvestment.ca
I think Steven Swink is a great chartist for PMs:
stockcharts.com
His comments, which prompted me to start this thread:
Ride the Precious Metals Bull
Outlook (Apr 2, 2007): The theoretical path to an April - June low which I've been describing for the last year is described/illustrated most succinctly in the Weekly XAU chart. However, the trading range upper limit becomes weaker and weaker as time goes on. So there is weakening sideways/downside pressure from the intermediate term (Weekly) pattern, but opposing and increasing upward pressure from the long term (Monthly) trend. There is no way to be certain that we won't breakup and out of the trading range rather than plunging to my long-forecasted low.
The upshot is that we watch it like a hawk, and if we detect weakness or topping patterns (as in a several weeks ago) we might lighten up. Mayb sell 1/3 or de-margin yourself or something like that.
Also: it appears that the stocks which did well last cycle may not be the ones which do well this cycle, but the ones which did well in 2003 - GSS, maybe CDE, ANO, the SA golds and junk like that. When taking a new position (especially in some Cando junior), I usually start fairly small then set buy stops below at 5% intervals in increasing amounts.
Portfolio (cash 10%): Updated daily as they change. Ordered by position size.
TIE,VLO,FCX,MGAFF,CMC,ERS,BMD,AUY,GRZ,GSS,CUP,NTO,CRS,GGB,
GG,AEM,PGDP,GMO,NAK,BLEFF,MRB,CZICF,TRE,GOLD,NXG,EGO,TGB,
AUAYF,DPTR,AZK,RGLD,MYMNF,AUREF,DROOY,UXG,SU,FRO,SLW,EKX,
EVRRF,KBX,ECUXF.
Outlook (03/20/2007): My most recent comment generated some confusion so I'll try to clarify. Despite my attempts to do so, no one can predict the future direction of gold or gold stocks. The recent hit at/below XAU/GOLD of 0.20 was a reasonable entry point - which is why I went 90% long. We may (or may not) get a plunge to an ideal entry point at the long-standing target of XAU 115-ish with an even lower XAU/GOLD of .19 or so by the end of June. I still think we need a real flush to panic out the weaklings before the trading range ends and the markup phase begins.
Portfolio (cash 10%): TIE,CUP,CMC,CRS,VLO,FCX,MGAFF,AUY,TRE,NTO,GSS,BMD,COSWF,GRZ,
GGB,GG,PMU,NAK,MRB,AZK,TGB,NSU,CCC,DPTR,NXG,UXG,PRB,FRO,ECUXF,KBX,SLW,
GBN,EXK,EAS,SVA,PGDP,SATC,CPST.
Outlook (03/16/2007): XAU 115 in two months is like a magnet that will draw all but the best of stocks into it's vortex. Hopefully you have some starter positions and some lowball buy order at 10-15% under the market.
Outlook (03/05/2007) Approaching the accumulation zone. Start positions in your favorites early.
Outlook (03/03/2007): Alright people, this is where the big money is going to be made. We will get a major bottom within 1-4 months. Cal it May/June. XAU/GOLD should hit 0.19. Ideal XAU downside target - of course - the same old boring XAU target we have had for over one year - XAU 116. Ideal 15 month XAU upside target - XAU 230-250 in early 2008. Time to search the charts, start accumulating those possible 5 and 10-baggers in the Candaian chart list. or GDX. Efforts ecpended in research now will likely repay themselves ten-fold over the ensuing 12-15 months.
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