Hi Diana:
You are absolutely right; this will be dead money for a while, and unless BANX backs off, or the technology doesn't work (which I doubt since Pac-Tel and others are already deploying it), then I think we are looking at 2nd quarter of 1997 before I expect to see any real increases. I posted my thoughts and reasoning, in detail, for it last week.
There are two things going that I don't like however:
1. There is now no PR firm, and will not be one in the near future. I think that they need to be looking at local and national PR on the launch of their Internet services. No one knows about it, and know one will unless they have someone to tell folks. This is big news. New stuff. The concept which drove the price above 17 last Spring. The PR is now in the hands of their IR folks, who will be responsible for writing press releases. Those of you who have spoken with their IR folks, specifically Jason, know what I mean when I say it is a huge mistake. (He doesn't return calls, can be rude, etc... By the way, if you want to call their IR office I suggest asking for Mike--he doesn't know all that is happening but he will find out for you and follow up.)
2. They are now selling off their "parts," which are their most valuable assests--their MMDS rights.
The good news in that they beat first call estimates, only losing .57 a share instead of .60. Now that is something to br proud of!
Seriously though, Diana makes an excellent point--this is going to be dead money for a while (and as I stated in a prior post I think we are talking 8-9 months out). In my mind, the major highlights, which will move the stock, are:
1. Commercial deployment of Internet and Intrnet services: IF THEY DO ANY REAL PR ABOUT IT!
2. Finalizing the BANX agreement.
3. Actually deploying and selling VA and Boston.
4. Actually deploying and selling in the markets in which BANX has no rights (which is problematic until the Tele-Quest satellite problem is resolved becuase this would be their programming source).
5. BANX optioning more markets based on the results in VA and Boston.
6. The money comes rolling in the stock is above 20, and you are telling your broker and spouse: "I told you so."
Time for all this: 8-9 months.
Unless things fall apart anymore, I would not try following this daily or to closely. I've been there, done that. This stock will continue to drive you crazy for a while until something happens, and that won't be until the BANX agreement is done.
I recommend that folks take Diana's advice and realize that when you are into technologies that haven't emerged yet it can be mighty lonely until the world catches up. Try explaining this technology to people sometime--you just get blank stares. Now when it is up and running and folks can visualize it those stares will change, and the technology and stock will be hot.
Anyhow, these are just my opinions and my take on things after studying and following this stock (too closely!) for many months more.
PS: Diana: Welcome back! Glad you found the ol' gang on the new thread. (Unfortunately, we lost some friends, but we have gained some new ones!) |
