belated <g> Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, July 31st.
Today was another one of those topsy-turvy days. After 4 1/2 hours of
trading, the market caused many to believe it might be a spectacular day to
the upside. Over the next two hours, however, the market gave back much of
those gains in most of the
indicators, although the Dow managed to close up more than 120 points for
the day.
The TRIN moving averages closed as follows:10 day-1.14, Open 10-0.99, New
10-0.82, with TRIN 5 closing at 4.02. That TRIN 5 close is the lowest TRIN 5
reading since May 22nd, the day which market the exact high of the past five
and a half months for
most of the major averages and indices. Such a reading waves a cautionary
flag for the market, but we do not mean to give the impression that it
guarantees a market top of any kind. There were TRIN 5 readings below 4.00
on April 16th-19th, but that
marked only the halfway point of the price move in the March-May rally.
The McClellan oscillator closed at + 45.8. This is a positive reading, and
it is suggestive of the positive internal readings the market has been
displaying. Since July 24th, each market day has shown an increase in the
number of 52 week highs and a
decrease in the number of 52 week lows. This is not negative market action.
The Value Line geometric Index, an index which is probably most
representative of the average share of stock in the United States equity
market, appeared to break above a trendline today both on a closing and an
intra-day chart. The trendline goes
back to the May 22nd high and moves through the highs in early June and
mid-July. The index , however , still faces formidable potential resistance
with its 50 day, 200 day, and one year moving averages all hovering 2-3%
above current levels.
Mutual fund switchers-Rydex switchers and Fidelity Select switchers are in
money-market funds or cash equivalents. All mutual funds switchers should
call the daily update each market afternoon after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and
each market evening.
Stock-index futures traders-there was no trigger to sell short today.
Tomorrow, through 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, sell short the September S&P on
any hourly or half hourly cash reading below 1,203.20. After that, you may
sell short on any hourly or
half hourly cash reading below 1,207.40. In both cases exit your short
positions only on an hourly or half hourly cash reading above 1,215.95.
The XAU continues to have significantly lower projections down to at least
below 45.00. September bonds, as we have noted over the past few days, have
met their minimum upside projections but the upper window of those
projections carries as high as
105 24/32. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow
stockmarketcycles.com |
