How I'm Going to Play It: The cow being prepared for slaughter now is the Speculation Myth. We are still in the building phase where testimony, editorials, radio shows, and chatter is building its way towards "finally proving" that speculation is the cause of high oil prices. Which is to say the myth will be disproven.
Once the speculation myth is disproven, a Big Gulp moment will arrive ("holy crap we are farked, better own some energy stocks"). That should probably be good for the final high of 2008 in energy stocks, I am guessing sometime late in Q3. Classically, the myth-busting would also line up with the seasonal high. 3rd week of September would be perfect. (Would also line up well with this year's Peak Oil conference in Sacramento--yes, I am going--which I think will draw lots of media this year. It's a big roster of headliners, and I expect energy to still be topic A in the election. So a "high" in energy stocks for 2008 would also line up well with all that coverage).
At that point I will finally take down some positions, and get a bit more defensive for 1. Change of Administration, 2. Potentially a warm winter, 3. An ever so slight easing of the narrow gap between global supply and demand.
I'll keep a fair amount on, mostly in common. And I will hide "in Canada."
Gregor |
