V: In any event our debate here is, I think, about how much money we can afford to spend to do the job (of job creation) and have reasonable chance to pay it back without forever mortgaging our future.
J: That's certainly in the general ballpark of what Steve and I have been discussing. Though the frame Steve and I place on the discussion is different. He uses yours. Mine is the deficit grows much worse if we do nothing. We're better off if we spend too much and solve the problem than if we spend too little and it goes on and on and on.
V: This is the heart of the argument.
First of all, speaking for myself, I am not advocating that we do nothing (Steve, I am sure can speak for himself, but I always thought he was for solving the credit crisis.)
1. The immediate problem is a credit/bank problem. That is both why people are losing their jobs and the economy is slowing down. Let's work on that and get that right. That demands our immediate attention. If we don't solve that problem there won't be enough tax revenue to do safety net stuff.
2. To totally make over safety net programs, with multiple future obligations and in hasty manner, and with very little full debate about the merits of each program, BEFORE we have any idea of whether the economy is going to recover, or not if but when it is going to recover, is not only bad management, but may be the final coup de grace to our economic system.
3. If I am right about the possibility of a threat to our entire economic system, and not just the normal boom/bust in the business cycle (Obama in his press conference tonight also portrayed it as being outside the normal cycle), then there is also extraordinary danger as well. And this to me means we should be proceeding with careful thought with a mind to the consequences if we fail.
My impression has been that everyone that had some pet project for social reform or economic revitalization has been trying to get it in this stimulus package with very little debate about the merits of the separate program and/or debate about how that or this program relates to our macro economic situation.
And all this only enhances the danger of failure, IMHO. |
