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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (87)

2/14/2022 9:23:27 AM

From: Jacob Snyder

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Signatures of recessions:
1. S&P 500 below its level of 6 months prior
2. employment: total nonfarm payrolls growth below 1% year-over-year
3. GDP growth below 2% year-over-year
4. Treasury yield curve flat
5. Junk Bond Spread: widening of credit spreads on corporate debt versus 6 months prior
6. ISM Purchasing Managers Index below 54

Other indicators:
Inflation tradingeconomics.com
Fed balance sheet tradingeconomics.com
Copper schrts.co
Wage growth atlantafed.org
Consumer Spending tradingeconomics.com
Consumer Sentiment tradingeconomics.com

S&P500 schrts.co

Non Farm Payrolls tradingeconomics.com
125k/month = 1.5m/year = 1% of 150million total payrolls fred.stlouisfed.org
reported monthly