Chip capex predicted to grow 7%
By Bolaji Ojo
04/14/2003 11:49 AM EST
URL: ebnews.com
After plunging a dizzying 37% in 2002, the global semiconductor equipment market is set to expand a moderate 7% this year despite low first-quarter capacity utilization and a reluctance to boost capital expenditure at chip suppliers.
Research firm Gartner Inc. said it expects the overall semiconductor equipment market to increase to approximately $30 billion in 2003 from $27.9 billion in 2002 and surge 39% in 2004 to $41.5 billion.
Gartner analysts based their optimistic forecast for the chip equipment market on several factors, including expectations for stronger demand as uncertainty in the economy abates as well as underinvestment over the course of the last two years.
"Spending in 2003 will most likely be driven by a reduction of the high degree of uncertainty in the business climate," said Jim Hines, an analyst at Gartner, in a statement. "This will allow for calculated business planning and consequently, allow companies to move away from worst-case preparedness toward calculated risk taking."
Despite the optimistic forecast, semiconductor plants are still running below their optimal utilization level and this may impact actual chip equipment demand during the year, Gartner said.
"In the second half of 2003, utilization rates are expected to rise, ending the year at a projected 90%, up from about 75% right now," said Dean Freeman, another analyst at Gartner. "The speed at which we approach this threshold and the strength of follow on demand will determine spending in the second half of this year and onward."
Packaging and assembly equipment will most likely lead the market expansion this year with an estimated 21% growth spurt, to $2.9 billion from $2.3 billion in 2002, Gartner said.
The wafer fab equipment market will grow 8% in 2003, to $17.5 billion from $16.2 billion and 41% next year to $24.6 billion. |
