Thoughts?, now you are asking an awful lot, LOL. Yes the fuel cells will still move up IMO, as long as Brent stays above 28 a barrel. I too like voice rec, but not everyone feels the same way (see Barrons article on SPWX below). NUAN and SPWX have something (independant voice rec) that is difficult to replicate. These two companies have a global dominance and I see value here as there will be an increase in demand for inet interface without a keyboard.
The next wave of buying will be more general as the money starts flowing back into techs-Sep-Oct are never good months for us. Leaders such as Oracle, SUNW, JDSU/SDLI, NT, CIEN, GLW etc... will be deemed as undervalued by some ANALyst and the sheep will applaud and buy (those who haven't lost their shirts in the last downtrend that is)....
Small pockets of strength in the techs will always be found for example CRMs now. I gave two examples and called long JAN.TO on Sunday, and DTEC yesterday: finance.yahoo.com Pays to be hang around here huh??? ;-)
Going back to bed, this flu is getting the best of me...
Alan's Speechlessnot over SpeechWorks
Barrons (09/11)
Technology is change and a relentless agent of creative destruction. We've long felt that because of the accelerating rate of technological invention and innovation, and the rapidity with which the latest new thing is shoved aside by an even newer new thing, most techs deserve lower rather than higher multiples than the average staid but more stable company. But since when does logic have anything to do with Wall Street in its manic phase?
As we suggested, investors are beginning to learn about the dark side of technology the hard way. It goes without saying (but we'll say it anyway) that the die-hard bullish claques, of which there is still an abundance, won't be stilled until the techs are total wrecks.
The blood-letting, alas, has only just begun. Too many tech issues, even after sharp declines, continue to sport absurd P/Es, and any number that have no P/Es because they're bereft of earnings sport absurdly high prices.
Take, by way of example, a company new to public ownership named SpeechWorks. Some 4.75 million shares were sold a little over a month ago at $20 apiece. The stock was your classic hot IPO, soaring to 108 and change in less than a fortnight. It has suffered some steep swoons and enjoyed some rapid climbs since and closed out last week at a lofty 73-plus.
At that price, the market is valuing the company at north of $2 billion. We know, we're an Old Paradigm investment type, but that does seem extravagant for a fledgling with sales of $14 million last year. It's even extravagant, for that matter, if they double revenues this year (and the consensus is for slightly less than double).
And in terms of earnings, extravagant doesn't quite fill the bill. Even absurd seems a little mild to describe a $2 billion valuation for a company that wound up last year in the red, has an accumulated deficit of $42.2 million and counting, and is slated to lose another big slug of dough this year and at least for the next two after that.
At the moment, there are 28.9 million shares outstanding. However, in five months or so, more than 18 million shares, now frozen from sale, will leave lockup. While we have absolutely no inside dope that any of the holders of those shares plan to unload, the history of the past year or two on the end of lockups raises at least a possibility that some of that stock will be sold. Such selling is not usually helpful to the shares already being traded.
The pizzaz here is twofold. The first is that SpeechWorks, as its name more or less implies, provides, to quote the description served up in the prospectus, "software products and professional services that enable enterprises and communications carriers to offer speech-activated services over any telephone." Speech recognition has long been a hot button for the racier element in the Street.
The other big draw is that SpeechWorks has hooked up with some big-name companies like AT&T and America Online, along with a lesser-known but quality firm called Net2Phone. And it boasts a glittering roster of customers, including Apple, BellSouth, MCI, Nortel and United Airlines.
Equally impressive, however, is the list of present and potential competitors, which includes IBM, Lernout & Hauspie, Lucent, Philips Electronics and, invevitably, the ubiquitous Microsoft.
Let's assume that the company's products and services generate increasing demand. That's an assumption. The hard facts are that its revenues, while growing rapidly, are minuscule and that it is losing money and is destined to do so for at least the next couple of years.
As that venerable caveat goes, there's simply no room for disappointment, either in the company's fortunes or the market's progress. The stock already has proved it can sell at over 100. Just as easily, though, it could sell at 40 or 30. |
