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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 182.40+3.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: Ruffian who wrote (114274)2/25/2002 1:28:26 PM
From: Keith Feral   of 152472
 
Ruffian: If Qualcomm is going to support high end guidance for MSM shipments in 2002, we could see a multi-year breakout in Qualcomm's MSM shipments. Qualcomm shipped 58 million MSM chipsets in CY 2001 (out of 75 million MSM chips) & 56 million MSM chipsets in CY 2000. They shipped a total of 37 million MSM ASICs in CY 1999. Qualcomm achieved a 77% MSM market share for CDMA handsets in 2001.

If the high end of the range for MSM shipments comes in at 90 million units this year, Qualcomm's 77% market share from last year would derive 69 million units for CY 2002. Qualcomm shipped 15 million MSM chips in FY Q1 2002 (Q4 2001). In CY 2002, they are providing guidance for 14 million MSM chips in CY Q1. That leaves them with a total of 55 million MSM chips over the balance of the next 3 quarter ending December 2002. That is an average of 18.3 million chips per quarter.

20% net add growth is fine for PCS this year if China & Inida begin to add 2 or 3 million CDMA customers. China & India have the line capacity to add another 2 or 3 million customers per quarter - 50 million lines combined by the end of next year. Assuming they fill 50% of the capacity, they will add 3 million CDMA subs per quarter through the end of 2003. That would be enough MSM chipsets for Qualcomm to hit the 18 million MSM target.
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