Bruda Jim,
[[Fore-note: You might like this populist -
webactive.com ]]
Re: If you're saying (not trying to put words in your mouth, but I think you've stated this position before) that the one and only app for wireless is voice, (everything else leaving questionable margins and economics) then I see your point.
Please, be my guest. Put words in my mouth. They sound good to me. It's the KISS principle in word and action.
Re: at a price that is more than twice the cost of existing infrastructure (my estimate).
This sounds like the same sort of complicated cost/benefit analysis that Frank patiently explained regarding Ethernet in lieu of ATM or Frame Relay. Superficially, the cost savings don't seem compelling. Dig deeper and there are definite advantages. Since management tends toward the superficial, and investors are mired in it, I find the "sell" here to be difficult.
But I wouldn't want to rely on any of those Cahner's In-Stat Report projections as the basis for my investment.
Remember, the Cahner's InStat game is to sell these reports to the companies they cover. Sort of as a bribe to say nice things about the vendors. You aren't really in the loop. Nor, for that matter, am I.
The question is... is there sufficient demand to drive the prices for coded OFDM infrastructure (including CPE) down to the point of universal accessibility (and desirability)?
I certainly don't think so. But like Bill Fleckenstein, I'm often wrong, but never in doubt.
But the other question the investor has to ask is: what has motivated Cisco, TI, Breezecom, Intersil, Broadcom, Infineon, and many others to spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and expend significant resources and effort in the field of BBFW?
Uhh, what motivated Clarence Chandran and John Roth to lose about $3 Billion on both Xros and Qtera? It's the old mentality of "first mover advantage". You'd think these people would learn. The lesson is obvious. Microsoft has never been first (or best for that matter) at any technology. They are always late to the party, with a less than stellar offering, but they are the premier tech marketers of our era. Conversely, look at the "gold rush" mentality in the new FO backbone operators. LVLT, TSIX and many others are in complete disarray, all because they thought they had to be first. Life isn't like that. It's the sales that matters, not the product.
Re: Have they all lost it?
Not yet, but if they keep at it they will surely succeed at losing it.
are all possessed of some lemming-like urge. Do you really believe that is the case?
Recent history makes this abundantly clear. Lest we forget, humans are a pack animal. We think in packs, we act in packs, we fail in packs. Or in packets as the case may be.
TTFN |
