Asteroid Might Hit Us, But Not for 30 Years
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An asteroid will pass close by the
Earth in the year 2028 and could conceivably hit us, astronomers
warned on Wednesday.
They said the asteroid, which had not been seen before, would
pass as close as 30,000 miles to the Earth. While chances of a
collision are small, it would not be out of the question.
"Chances are it will miss," Dr. Brian Marsden of the International
Astronomical Union (IAU) said.
Even if it were on a path to hit Earth, technology might be
available by then capable of deflecting the asteroid, he said.
"What would be scary is if it were three days from now or three
weeks or even three years. Thirty years is just right because it's
far enough in the future," Marsden said in a telephone interview.
"If it were going to hit us, and that's a big if, we would would have
time to plan to do something about it."
The asteroid, which is estimated to be a mile in diameter, has
been named 1997 XF11. It was discovered by Jim Scotti of the
University of Arizona.
Latest observations show it will pass as close as 30,000 miles
from the center of the Earth.
"It was quite startling to find that the nominal orbit that we were
using brought it as close as we did. I have not seen anything like
that," Marsden said.
Even if the asteroid passed by at 200,000 miles away, that would
bring it inside the Moon's orbit.
Marsden said calculations showed the asteroid would be closest
at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, Oct. 26, 2028.
"If it really is as close as 30,000 miles it will really be quite bright,"
Marsden said. It will be evening in Europe and will be visible
there with the naked eye.
"It would actually be a rather nice thing to see."
The IAU said the computations were still uncertain and it was not
clear whether the asteroid might come even closer. It asked
amateur astronomers to look for the asteroid.
"It should be quite accessible for a while with large telescopes,
which in addition to helping establish whether a collision in 2028 is
possible, could usefully provide more definite information about
the object's size."
An asteroid that slammed into the Earth 65 million years ago is
believed to have kicked up so much dust that it wiped out the
dinosaurs.
Marsden said the statement was meant to alert astronomers, not
to frighten the public. "It's not intended to be scary or alarmist," he
said. "The Earth as a target is not very big."
Technology by the year 2028 could probably deal with any
asteroid, Marsden said.
"Suppose we knew it were going to hit ... That is the time to start
doing something about it and sending missions to it. A little
deflection, that's what you need, and with time on your side you
don't need much of a deflection." |
