Insurance cos (proposed buy outs, etc. discussion) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Insurance cos (proposed buy outs, etc. discussion)

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To: Carey Thompson who wrote (11)	3/10/1999 12:44:00 AM
From: QuietWon	of 55

Carey, I take a top down approach trying to know a sector and then how the co's fit into that sector. Always good to go with the leader in a sector/niche. The co's there are mainly life, health, reinsurance, technology systems and data providers. There are a few property casualty co's, but so many of them out there, just way too many so stuck with a few of them as proxies; also, the property casualty industry in general has been in a 'soft' market meaning they wish they could charge more but it's a tough market with rates being undercut. Lot of consolidation should occur. Never heard of 20th century of California. Allstate haven't kept an eye on it since when I did, it didn't do too much. MBIA is credit card biz/financing if i rem correct. AIG - Tim Luke made a great call on it a couple of weeks back. Chubb I believe (this goes back a bit) sold it's life insurance biz. As I said, I tend to watch only a few property companies. Looking (in early 1998) at the p/e's of the co's i listed, some seemed well below average - including TA. Good research but has been a waste since wasn't in TA (why bother when i-nets doing so well). Based on current p/e's of the above co's the following have low p/e's and maybe the thing to do is buy a little of each since at some point maybe there will be another buyout. Prob is too many stocks to choose from, not enough money to buy them all, who knows how long it will take for value to be recognized, and the i-nets can move a bunch of pts in a day (look at GNET - thgt of buying at 15 as it did look promising, but no conception it could go to 150 or so - ins stks certainly don;t do this in less than 12 months). TOC.to p/e = ~9 MNY p/e ~6 CWL p/e ~7 REL p/e ~3 there's a few in low 10's CI at 13 AAN at 14 CLSI at 11 PLFE at 12 Good luck with it.

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