Performance of my stock picks on this thread.
Hi everyone. I am just back from my vacation and while away I was thinking about this thread. (OK, not too often, but once in a while) and I thought it would be beneficial to review the stocks that I have brought to the thread to see if I have been making positive contributions, or if I have been a bum. Lots of people present stock ideas and we rarely see any type of performance review, so here is mine. I'll list the stock, the post #, date posted and approximate price at the time of the post. I will also include a line from the original thread (what I said) and information on subsequent price performance. I am writing this before I do the review, and I am keeping my fingers crossed. Here goes: (win-loss-tie tally after each pick, written mid day 3/31/99)
Feb 8 1999 Reply # 8124
"Anthony@Pacific called for a new short position on IMON today at 8 with advice to
short more near the close. FWIW."
OK, I was just the messenger on my first post here, but I had played IMON previously as a long as did several others here. IMON has dropped to about 4. Call it a win. (1-0-0)
Feb 10 1999 Reply # 8610
"GNET might be a good buy tomorrow. GNET closed under $90 today...Looks like a relatively safe buy to me. "
The stock split, so the above price is $45 split adjusted. The stock has tripled since then, breaking $150 recently and is around $130 now. Big win. 2-0-0 at this point
Feb 16 1999 Reply # 9008
"All - Possible IPO play - WMB"
The stock was at $35 at the time and moved up slowly. It is at $40 now. Small win, win-loss-tie is now 3-0-0.
Feb 19 1999 Reply # 9410
"NBTY - I bought this one recently...good growth prospects in a rapidly growing market, good brand recognition, low P/E. They might get a boost when their web business materializes."
I still like this one, but it has dropped from 6 ½ to just over 5. (3-1-0)
Feb 20 1999 Reply # 9519
"I am currently short ENMD (21) and OMGA (8 ½)."
ENMD quickly dropped to $16, bounded up to $25 and has been around $22 recently. OMGA should have been a long. It got as high as 16 but just broke under 10 yesterday. (I'll call this one tie and one loss) (3-2-1)
Feb 22 1999 Reply # 9601
"JBOH - short- 500 @ 9 3/16."
It did go over 10 but then dropped to near 7. A win. (4-2-1)
Feb 25 1999 Reply # 9993
"Trader J: CIEN ... it has been moving up recently on big volume...Might be worth a look."
The look should have been the other way. It was above 28 and subsequently has been mostly around 24. (4-3-1)
Feb 26 1999 9:38AM Reply # 10101
"All - MTMC may run up today"
It opened strong and had good volume, but did not run up. (4-4-1)
Mar 1 1999 Reply # 10320
"ALL - PVII I've been watching this one for the past few weeks. It just traded at 4 ½, up 7/8 (24%) today."
It has trading potential with a good bit of up and down movement on a percentage basis. Above 5 now. (5-4-1)
Mar 1 1999 Reply # 10341
"I'm holding ZD and may pick up some ALU here."
These are backdoor IPO's. ZD was about $18 at the time. It broke $20 in a few days and closed over $28 yesterday. ALU was 8 3/4. It rose a little the next few days and is near 12 today but has not made its real move yet. (7-4-1)
Mar 2 1999 Reply # 10468
"SFE - Anyone follow this co.? It is somewhat like CMGI. They are in the business of developing partnership companies that they eventually take public...Since they make announcements about investments and IPO's it can be a good daytrade and I think it is also a good long term hold."
This ran from 38 at the time, breaking 70 within 3 weeks, which is about where it is now. (8-4- 1)
Mar 3 1999 Reply # of 12021
"GNET - Just picked up some at 59 1/8."
As mentioned before GNET has been very strong. It is in the 130's now. (9-4-1)
Mar 4 1999 Reply # 10574
"PLCOP - Sounds too good to be true."
Looks like it was too good to be true. 1 ½ then, about half that now. I wouldn't call it a win or a loss, just a curiosity.
Mar 5 1999 Reply # 10660
"Trader J - AMZN short - You have been thinking about an AMZN short. So how does
this sound - Go long YHOO and use the margin to short an equal amount
of AMZN. If all the inets zoom - or crash - the "neutral position" should not suffer. As
long as here forward AMZN performs more poorly, or less spectacularly, than YHOO
you make money."
This 9pm Friday post was followed-up by this next one on Sunday:
Mar 7 1999 Reply # 10710
"AMZN/YHOO pair - Another alternative might be AMZN/CNET, figuring AMZN has already had its day in the sun while CNET is just taking off now."
Mar 8 1999 10:52AM Reply # 10745
"AMZN short/CNET long - Ok so after 1 hour this strategy looks pretty good. For a while AMZN was down a bit while CNET was racing ahead. Now CNET is up about $25 while AMZN is up almost $2."
That was a good hour, but AMZN has not been a good short. It closed at about $122 on 3/5 and has since run up over $160, with good strength the past two days. Neither CNET or YHOO has done as well. Call it a loss. (9-5-1)
Mar 8 1999 Reply # 10746
"It looks like ABTX may have bottomed at 3 3/4 (which I think is way oversold). Up $1 now (27%)."
It continued up. Breaking $6 ½ within 2 weeks. (10-5-1)
Mar 11 1999 Reply # 11027
"SFE is making a strong move today. Up 7 on good volume. Perhaps it will keep
running. I'm in from a couple of weeks ago at 40 ½ and plan to buy more here."
SFE was at 47 at the time of this post. I seem to do well averaging up. SFE is just under $70 now. (11-5-1)
Mar 11 1999 Reply # 11030
"CIEN looking at 28, up 2 7/8 on 6.6 mil shares. It has been moving up in spurts since
Jan."
I like CIEN, but it can't seem to break through $28 - yet. Wrong twice on this one - ouch. (11-6- 1)
Mar 15 1999 Reply # 11250
"IPO's - the 25 day quiet period - Part I... IMHO, the cream of the crop in this list is: ITRA, NESY and PCOR."
The day before this post ITRA closed at 28. The day of the post it ranged from 29 to 39 and is now at 38. NESY: 38, 38-43, 52. PCOR: 58, 58-63, 58.
It looks like NESY was a winner (although it fell below $30 on 3/22), PCOR got as high as 78 within a few days before falling back, I'll call NESY and PCOR wins. ITRA could have gone either way depending on your entry and exit points. I'm still long on it, call it a tie, for now. (13- 6-2)
StockHawk |
