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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: axial who wrote (12167)2/28/2002 11:57:50 PM
From: Rob S.   of 12823
 
"The whole mess is still a solution looking for a market, mired in commercial throat-cutting, regulatory labyrinths, spectrum inconsistencies, and standing on the shifting ground of constantly-changing technology."

True but that is par for the course isn't it? Look at this simply as what will it take to turn on buyers. I don't think wide area or metro wireless broad band is much different than WLAN. People will buy it if it is cheap and easy because it saves them time and money and makes their job easier or enhanced. There is no miracle needed for wireless BB to go over the top: A $200-$300 CPE, perhaps subsidized by the WISP or MMDS ISP provider and a flat unlimited usage rate of $30 per month. This should be easier to achieve in many third world markets because the telecomms didn't pay so exorbitantly for spectrum. In N. America the government should leave hands off the floundering telcos and let more of them go out of business, maybe coughing up their spectrum for lower prices.

It is a snake pit but so was the young PC marketplace and most "revolutionary" hotbeds of development. Let the weak and dimwitted perish and the strong survive. During the early stages of new technology there is a lot of creative destruction and only those with the clearest vision and best directed efforts will come out winners. I think the telecommunications industry and equipment providers need to be shaken down to their roots because it is such a bloody mess. If they can't deliver what the market wants then good riddance.

"If you're saying that one or two will soon emerge as victors over all their competitors, and gain huge commercial success, with the attendant attractive investment potential, I disagree."

I don't think that at all. I think that standards will prevail above any single company. The field is likely to remain extremely competitive and cutthroat for years if not decades, particularly in the unlicensed spectrum markets. It's very unlikely that anything like a Microsoft or Intel equivalent will evolve imo. This will be much more like a commodity market at the low end with a few companies who will rise to provide back-end systems. If I were to take a wild guess on any single company gaining the largest market share at this point I'd say Cisco even though they don't currently have a viable product. They will either end up acquiring companies in the field when it reaches a level of critical mass or develop their own. Their prior effort, V-OFDM based stuff, failed but recent investments in Flarion may be a viable vehicle into this market. They have time because it's not going anywhere fast right now. The reason I think Cisco may come in to capture this space, if they want it, is because it plays to the sale of their other gear. This end of the business will probably be low margin compared to the bulk of their business but it will allow them more sales tied to the IP market and technology "convergence".
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