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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Uncle Frank who wrote ()12/8/1999 3:31:00 PM
From: RoseCampion   of 54805
 
re: VISX.

Some may remember that I posted here this summer, relating deep concerns about VISX's position and seriously questioning their potential for gorillahood, given my understanding of the dynamics of the vision correction market. I remain quite skeptical of even calling them a King at this point, given the strength of the competition (particularly Bausch and Lomb/Chiron and Nidek) and the low costs of switching. However, even given yesterday's events (and at the risk of appearing to be arguing with myself <g>) I would have to note Goldman Sach's take on things:

"We are maintaining our trading buy on VISX shares. The administrative law judge for the ITC released her Initial Determination last night that Nidek was found not to infringe on VISX's patents. At this point, there is little information as the decision was delivered late yesterday. However, we do know that VISX (1) can appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals, (2) VISX core method patents remain valid and enforceable until a Court of Appeals ruling, and (3) the company has saved its stronger patents for future suits. While the ITC decision was not a positive for the company, we note that the core patents remain in-place, there is no change to our 1999 and 2000 EPS estimates, and market growth is strong."

Full text of the GS analysis (much more detail) on the VISX board:

Message 12213081

-Rose-

PS: Kudos to LindyBill, whose post on Intel as King seemed to be the catalyst for the incredible set of recent discussions here. (D*** him for making it take a few more hours out of my day in order to keep up with it all! <vbg>)
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