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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 240.87+3.4%Jan 6 3:59 PM EST
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To: umbro who wrote (12495)8/4/1998 2:01:00 AM
From: umbro  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
As a contrast, here are AOL's options stats:
AOL options report for 08/03/98
AOL price: 116.000
Options Study for: AUG
put break-even: 110.23 OI = 26194 VOL = 1841
call break-even: 125.12 OI = 58166 VOL = 7834
max. pain: 114.98 R = 0.5 R = 0.2
Options Study for: SEP
put break-even: 109.04 OI = 4349 VOL = 155
call break-even: 131.86 OI = 13140 VOL = 1511
max. pain: 114.98 R = 0.3 R = 0.1
Options Study for: OCT
put break-even: 99.80 OI = 11175 VOL = 104
call break-even: 129.22 OI = 17742 VOL = 476
max. pain: 99.96 R = 0.6 R = 0.2
Options Study for: JAN
put break-even: 93.09 OI = 9004 VOL = 200
call break-even: 132.13 OI = 19639 VOL = 531
max. pain: 87.22 R = 0.5 R = 0.4
net long/short: 5.80 mil.
i.v. for AUG = 0.73
i.v. for SEP = 0.68
i.v. for OCT = 0.65
i.v. for JAN = 0.60

Notes: (1) overall lower implied vols than AMZN, (2) excessively
bullish sentiment expressed in low put/call rations (3) (not shown)
another sign of bullishnes is that calls are trading at higher
implieds than puts (4) lots more options trading volume than AMZN.

If AOL announces an upside surprise at the open, I'd be tempted to
buy a few at-the-money puts at the open, just to fade some of this
rampant bullish. Could be another Yahoo! fizzle in the making.
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