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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: Stephen O'Hara who wrote (12848)8/7/1998 12:53:00 AM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
steve,

Your observations parallel most of my thoughts regarding price action.

I don't know what level II costs. Buy a copy of IBD and look at some of the advertisements of services that offer level II. I do not pay for my level II as it is but one part of my software package that I use for trading.

As far as Kramer goes, he is no more of a Guru than any of the other talking heads. The reason thestreet.com is antivivus is because they are very proPfizer and it is in their own self serving interests to bash the competitor--especially the company that before Viagra had the number one selling ED product.

The shorts have been playing the same old false perception game since the end of last year and I can see how it would scare off the naive investor. Here are some of their classical ploys:

1)Make us believe that MUSE doesn't work. eg Asensio's Italian study, AAU presentation of very biased anti-MUSE study
2)Make us think that MUSE is terribly uncomfortable and will burn off the dicks of ED patients who try it. Yes there is some warmth or even burning but look at the actual percentages.
3)Make us think that nobody in their right mind would want to stick a pellet in their penis to treat ED
4)Make us think that the ED market is not big enough for both Viagra and MUSE and that MUSE can not occupy a niche large enough for Vivus to be a profitable company.
5)Make us think that orals are a cure all for ED thus MUSE is "obsolete"

As far as share price goes, IMO present levels are not sustainable without serious danger of a buy out. I think Vivus CAN break 5 5/8 but IMO it would not last and would rapidly spike upwards towards 7 if this happens. Look at eg PERI today or PRST yesterday. Extreme lows are often very short lived with sudden sharp moves to the upside. As far as the double bottom goes, to a chartist it will indeed look fine and dandy but Vivus has a history of totally erratic and unpredictable moves when price is thought to be dependent on TA.

My gut feeling is that as you say we will show a classic double bottom or we will breach 5 5/8 only to see a sharp bounce to the upside durring the same trading day.
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