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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor
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To: who wrote (129)6/23/1996 3:34:00 PM
From: Jim Roof   of 4710
 
Elliott,

I hate that question! I could be so wrong but I will answer the question just as you posed it. If I were in at 19 1/2 and saw what was going on in VTSS I would probably either sell right now or place a stop somewhere to keep me from losing money, maybe at 21 1/2. Probably the stop would be my preference. I would also expect to get hit on the stop in a few days but one never really knows.

What concerns me if I am long is the heavy volume of the last few weeks. The chart almost looks like it could be a corrective move but these moves should produce decreasing rather than increasing volume. Remember, volume goes with the trend. Bullish stocks see volume increase on the rallies and lighter volume on the dips. Bearish stocks see heavy volume in the dips and lighter volume on the rallies (on average). The top of VTSS shows something of a transition of volume characteristics where the rally of early June did not produce as much volume as either of the selloffs on either side of it. This portends a shift in the market to a bearish posture.

Now, if I'm dead wrong and you get hit on a stop or sell outright tomorrow morning and VTSS gains 10 points on the week then I'll feel rotten. But I honestly think I have a better chance of feeling good about my answer.

I'd go with the stop at 21 1/2, maybe a bit higher but not as high as 22. If you like 22 then you should just sell outright.

Jim
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