Fred,
you said: " There is much talk about the stock dropping during the quiet period when CREAF
stops buying it. I don't think that this will necessarily happen, but I do think it is
more and more likely the longer CREAF sits steady at 17." You suggest that people will bail during the quite period, unless they continue buying up until the quiet period...I don't think so. I think the stock is going to sell off at the quiet period, regardless of what they do now. There are a lot of people ready to take quick profits here, and regardless of whether they buy it up to 20 or leave it at 17, there WILL be a selloff (IMHO) during the quiet period. As for bringing it to 20 being more beneficial in any case, I disagree. It will be nice for the people who are going to bail anyway, but I don't think it will give any support. Remember, this sucker fell under 8 less than 2 months ago...there is no simple "30% retracement" deal in real life...it can fall a lot or a little, for a variety of reasons. Personally, I think going to 20 before the quiet period would be enough to make me sell, at least part of my holdings. Lastly, I think a fall from 20 would be quicker and harder than a fall (if there is one) from 17...just my opinion, of course. |
