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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: sylvester80 who wrote (13060)12/13/2001 11:40:22 AM
From: Sully-   of 99280
 
Ciena (CIEN) 15.15 -2.82: This is where the impending economic recovery meets up with the currently not-so-pleasant outlook on corporate profits. This morning, Ciena reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.05 per share on revenues of $367.8 million -- both numbers were in line with analyst expectations. Yet it was management's forward outlook that has the stock selling off severely in early trade activity. For its fiscal first quarter, the company projects a 30-40% sequential revenue decline. In terms of firm numbers, Ciena sees first quarter revenues in the range of $221-$257 million versus the current consensus estimate of $349 million. The following quote from the company's press release doesn't exactly engender overwhelming bullishness: "given the uncertainty in the market and the resulting unpredictability of quarterly revenues, our sustained investment strategy means that we will incur operating losses." In particular, the words "uncertainty" and "unpredictability" don't exactly square with the recent market view that an economic recovery is a mere formality at this point. Whether the market shrugs off Ciena's outlook as a company-specific anomaly (which it may be) remains to be seen. Yet at the very least, Ciena's deep warning on revenues will redirect investors' attention to the fact that this is warnings season. Put another way, be aware of when companies related to your investments report -- the performance of those suppliers, customers and competitors can play a key role in the direction of your investments. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com
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