With earnings past, factors other than profits and outlook start to matter more
3+ months ago I wrote this here:
Based on technicals I think AAPL is going to get to about $130 and then hang out for a couple months before its next leg up. What it does after that will depend on CY1Q15 results plus Apple's CY 2Q15 guidance, but I expect these will be Just Fine.
OK, earnings have come and gone, with results and guidance as expected (" Just Fine"). So what do I think might happen to AAPL next?
Well, about a month ago I looked at charts of prior years and figured that 2-3 weeks after April earnings AAPL might be ready to push through the resistance at $130 I envisioned three months ago, and 3 weeks later we're indeed seeing AAPL push up against it, with some market movers (ex: Carl Icahn) calling for further gains.
I feel like it's a safe bet to expect AAPL to pick up maybe $10-15 (roughly 10%) in the next month and then to stall again, barring significant developments (up or down) in the broader market. Fairly easy money if it comes to pass, I should think. This expectation is based mostly on boring stuff like valuation, as AAPL's P/E ratios have gotten lighter and the big money has had a chance to stock up before the rest of the world gets the pump. The gains might be greater if news of fantastic Apple Watch sales get out, but it may be too early in that product's lifecycle to expect.
The valuation story line looks like it's starting to get out:
CNBC | Last time this happened, Apple shares soared |
