Christopher,
I wholeheartedly agree with all of your points except the last:
Furthermore, if x2 is accepted as the industry standard for 56k modems, I think USRX/COMS could become the top dog in the RAS market, eclipsing ASND.
Actually, I agree with the end, but not the means. The "industry standard" will be the ITU standard. It is extremely unlikely that the ITU standard will be either x2 or K56Flex in their pure form, but rather a combination of those and perhaps other 56k implementations. It doesn't really matter what the standard is since, in theory, most everyone's modems will be flashable with new firmware that will make it compliant with the standard. Of course, anyone with a non-upgradeble (as in "can't comply with the ITU standard") modem is screwed. If that were to happen, it will be a repeat of the current situation where all Ascend based ISPs are screwed into having to purchase new modem cards to replace non-upgradeable ones, and all owners of Rockwell based client modems own equipment that is not upgradeable.
As far as becoming the "top dog", it is 3Coms/USR's technology and distribution channel advantage that will give them the edge. Heretofore, Ascend has enjoyed a per-port cost advantage over USRX in large part because they used cheaper technology and didn't invest in as much R&D. The Ascend Maxen hubs are actually poor bandwidth performers under a load, which will become even more evident as 56k ports are deployed and demand for bandwidth increases. (Refer to data.com or for a quick snapshot see data.com ) While they may have "bought in" more cheaply, owners of Ascend Maxen are now paying two huge prices: First, they are now months behind their USR based ISP competitors in deploying 56k ports and, secondly, they will incur significant hard dollar costs to aquire 56k capable modem cards, while their USR based competitors incur little or no hard dollar costs.
As far a future RAS sales go, it looks like USR will once again leapfrog the competition. As you pointed out, their new RAS box will be release soon. Reports indicate that it will support a very high port density. Most important, however, is the indication that the new modem cards will allow a single C6X DSP chip to support two modem ports. That will provide them with a major cost advantage over competitors that use technology from Rockwell, Lucent or Microcom. Refer to techstocks.com for comments from the Bear Stearns analyst regarding the implications of C6X technology.
All in all, it looks really good to me going forward. I'm very long and staying that way.
(P.S. to Jeff - Sorry to clutter up your file cabinet with chat!)
(:-D) |
