The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

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To: robert b furman who wrote (13400)	7/23/2025 3:41:53 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) of 13770

Cars not included in Japan tariffs' deal Around 80% of Japan’s trade surplus with the US is in cars and auto parts. Bloomberg Today's big story: * US signs a trade deal with Japan reduced broad based tariffs to 15% (from the 25% that was touted). * PM Ishiba confirmed that does include cars. Around 80% of Japan’s trade surplus with the US is in cars and auto parts. * Also includes a pledge for Japan to invest $550b into the US (reminiscent of the GCC pledges back in May) * Japan to form a JV with the US in Alaska to export LNG . This is a $44bn export project which has not yet managed to secure binding long- term contracts. Unclear if this agreement will allow the plan to move forward. AND: a short while ago, local media were reporting that the Japanese PM Ishiba will announce his resignation by the end of August. This after losing a majority in the Upper House elections over the weekend and coming under increasing political pressure to step down. How are markets reacting? En fuego: - Nikkei + 3.2% - Carmakers soaring: Toyota + 12% , ,Subaru + 15% - JGBs : 10y + 9bps , back to the yield HIGHS of the year and very close to the highest levels since 2008 (!) * Notably: front end JGBs have repriced. Market is now pricing in about an 88% chance of a BOJ rate hike by the end of the year, compared with about 59% a day earlier. - USDJPY : Yen a tad weaker vs the $ today (0.2%). Though if a hike is back on the table, the weakness may be short-lived European Equity futures pointed to open +1.1%. Let's see whether the Europeans can also clinch a deal by August 1st and whether that can save the European auto industry. (Stellantis warned of a $2.7bn loss for H1 2025 yesterday due to tariffs and other charges)

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