Hi Charles:
I am not sure I agree with your time table and the scenario of the DSL evolution. And I definetly do not subscribe to the notion that the less bandwidth (offered by HDSL vs ADSL) is better (at least for the next 3 years), just because telcos have no technology in place or competitive pressure from Cable operators to deal with it.
<< 3. I don't think VOD is commercially viable right now. Those who come at it from a technology angle completely overlook the business of renting movies. Video stores, pay-per-view and movie sell-through on videocassette, and soon DVD, will make the business case for VOD over the telco infrastructure a very weak case.>>
In the scenario I suggested with the video proxy placed at some COs, there is no need to modify the existing infrastructure of a TELCO or an ISP network, since the VOD is utilizing the downstream bandwidth of the last mile local loops casting a videofile. The video file could be
a movie, a video comercials (displayed on the internet computers) for the internet subscribers, a requested videoclip(s) of TV shows, public domain videofiles, learning courses, store and forward video files from the remote hosts TV program from a local TV station and so on.
My vision of the movie renting in the 3 to 5 years time span is:
I do not go to the local videostore, but rather call from my computer to their or TELCO's or whoever videoserver, view the video clips from different movies trying to decide which one I like and then order the movie. It saves me a trip to the store, I have a better selection (no movie can be out of stock, like it happens today in the video store), selection process is automated with ratings, automatic searches and so on, and I do not have to wait for the beginning of the movie as in pay per view. |
