I couldn't agree more about real stuff, however, I'll qualify it with real important stuff. And I just don't see the importance of gold, at least not the way it has been used historically. Now, if you told me gold was going to be used on printed circuit boards for a 10X enhancement in processing speed, or that a new energy efficient solar collecor required a thin film of AU, which would cut the worlds oil dependence in half, than I would have reason to believe gold was "real stuff". Until then, it just makes cool jewelry. Obviously, JMO.
Drugs are real stuff because they really help people live better and possibly more importantly (from a profit standpoint at least) longer. Drugs cannot easily be replaced with a substitute and so the "rarity" factor is strong. Drug discovery is, and has been for 10 years, undergoing a revolution. This trend will accelerate for at least a generation.
Oil will probably rise steeply over some period in time, but it could be 20 to 50 years in the future. It will probably trade in a wide band ($15 to $30?) for quite some time. It is very possible science will make oil obsolete before oil breaks out of that band. Of course, good TA and FA will allow you to trade that band until then. Oil came from the dinosaur (maybe) and will go that way too. |
