Remember, P/E's are determined not only by company fundamentals, but by interest rates as well. So, while historical P/E's are a guide, since rates are so much lower than previous bottoms ('97, '95, etc.), the bottom will likely be at a higher P/E than previously. By the way, you are using trailing P/E's. I tend to use forward P/E's (based on the next 12 months' earnings).
Don't think we're entering a bear market either. Look, this is my second favorite company of all that I own and follow. You will not find another company growing at 25% with such incredible visibility (predictability going forward) yet selling at a forward P/E in the teens. If you do, buy that one too. Cisco should grow at 30% annually, but it's forward P/E is 40. Which would you rather own RIGHT NOW? |
