"we would see the continuation of a "North Atlantic malaise,"
I figure at least 10 or 15 more years, unless the R's take over, in which case "malaise" will be the "good old days".
Hirsch report
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. It examined the time frame for the occurrence of peak oil, the necessary mitigating actions, and the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.
The Lead Author, Robert Hirsch, published a brief summary of this report in October 2005 for the Atlantic Council.
[edit] Intro
"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
[...
Oil peaking presents a unique challenge.
Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.
Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary.
Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The problem is liquid fuels for transportation.
The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.
Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.
Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
Both supply and demand will require attention.
Sustained high oil prices will cause forced demand reduction (recession and unemployment).
Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels can and must be provided.
The production of substitute liquid fuels is technically and economically feasible.
It is a matter of risk management.
The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem
Mitigation efforts earlier than required may be premature, if peaking is long delayed.
On the other hand, if peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging.
Government intervention will be required.
The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.
Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures.
Economic upheaval is not inevitable.
Without mitigation, the peaking of world oil production will cause major economic upheaval.
Given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.
New technologies will help, but on a longer time scale.
More information is needed.
Effective action to combat peaking requires better understanding of the issues.
Risks and possible benefits of possible mitigation actions need to be examined.
[edit] Three scenarios
Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.
Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.
(except conventional oil peaked in '05)
[edit] Applicability beyond the US, critical remarks
The Hirsch Report urges a crash program of new technologies and changes in manners and attitudes in the US and as well implying more research and development. The report cites a peaking crude oil supply as the main reason for immediate action.
During the significant oil price rise through 2007, a theme among several industry observers was that the price rise was only partially due to a limit in crude oil availability (peak oil). For example, an article by Jad Mouawad cited an unusual number of fires and other outages among U.S. refineries in the summer of 2007 which disrupted supply.[1] The same article mentions a reduction in routine refinery maintenance made necessary by the need to operate near full capacity to make up for a loss in refinery capacity from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season; deferred maintenance on refineries that escaped hurricane damage led to an increase in fires and accidents in 2007. However, later the article also cites rising demand from U.S. consumers which stretched refinery capacity to the limit, making the whole system more vulnerable to disruptions.
As for the global usefulness of the Hirsch conclusions, as of 2004 the US share of global oil consumption was about 26%, while the share of population was only 4.3%, Europe took 11% of global oil while having a population of about 6.8%. An average car in Germany uses about 8.1 liter per 100 km, the US consumption 16.2 L. In US terms 1 gallon delivers 44 miles in Germany but only 22 in the States.
So far a part of the changes ultimately requested by Hirsch for the US have been already implemented in Europe (and cum grano salis in Asia). The difference had been much smaller at the start of the 70s. Europe adapted more after the various oil shocks and enhanced the changes by introducing much higher taxes on gasoline. The differences now are not only a lack of energy saving technologies, in car building and usage, and passive insulation of buildings in the US. The traditional significant differences in the setup and density of settlements, share of suburbs, use of public transport and consumer behavior have been widening. Taking this into account, a peak oil shock as outlined by Hirsch will have a much more severe outcome in the US compared to other parts of the world, especially Europe.
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