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Technology Stocks : The end of Moore's law - Poet Technologies
POET 6.720-4.9%1:48 PM EDT
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From: toccodolce9/23/2025 10:42:30 AM
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longz

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Zack's Small Cap Research: Latest report from Lisa Thompson

Latest from Agoracom

I need to talk about Lisa's results :

The forecasts for the total transceiver market are as follows:

  • $12.6 billion in 2024

  • $20.7 billion in 2030

  • $42.5 billion in 2032

The average market volume around 2027 could be estimated as:
(12.6 + 20.7) / 2 = $16.65 billion

According to Lisa, roughly one-third of that is optical transceivers, so:
$16.65 billion / 3 = $5.55 billion (estimated optical transceiver market in 2027)

Lisa comments:

“If POET can secure even a small portion of that market with its unique offering, its valuation should far exceed its current price.”

But what exactly is "a small portion"?
She assumes a revenue of $80 million in 2027.
However, if that’s the case, why is her resulting share price estimate so low?

This contradiction keeps bothering me.

Let’s continue:

Price per Transceiver :ChatGPT says that a transceiver today costs between $1000–$2500, so we can assume an average of $1750.
But for large-scale purchases, let’s conservatively assume a price of $1000 per unit.

So the number of optical transceivers in 2027 would be:
$5.55 billion / $1000 = 5.55 million units

That’s our baseline.

Lisa’s Valuation Breakdown :Then Lisa drops this statement out of nowhere:

“To value POET, we need to look at estimated 2027 revenues of $80 million.”

$80 million revenue would mean a market share of just 1.44% based on the $5.55B optical transceiver market.

And this is where it gets completely inconsistent:

Two Calculation Scenarios :

Scenario 1: Lisa bases revenue on end-user transceiver pricingIf POET earned $1000 per transceiver:
$80M / $1000 = 80,000 transceivers
That’s about 6,700 units/month in 2027 – a modest production run.

BUT:
This is clearly wrong because POET does not sell full transceivers – only components like optical engines or interposers.

Scenario 2: POET earns only from component salesLet’s say POET earns $50 per unit (conservative but possibly realistic):
$80M / $50 = 1.6 million units per year
That’s about 133,000 per month, which equals a market share of 28.8% (!)

Yes – that would be amazing.
But is it realistic for POET to grab nearly 30% market share by 2027?
And why then Lisa's ultra low calculated shareprice ???
Highly doubtful at all.



My conclusion :That’s why I simply cannot take Lisa’s valuation approach seriously.
She fails to explain how she gets to the $80 million figure and what it means.
And her logic behind deriving the share price is built on vague, inconsistent assumptions.

For me, this is one of those analyses that belongs in the “garbage box”
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