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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Clam Clam who wrote (1469)	1/26/1998 3:46:00 AM
From: Sirius Pointer	Read Replies (1) of 3033

The street estimate of $.13 for this quarter does appear to be low. The Q3 and Q4 estimates look hard to beat though. Taking the following assumptions for Q1, the number still comes out at $.16. Revenue: flat at 37.7M Operating Margin: 16.3% as in 97Q1 Interest: same as 97Q4, about 0.4% of revenue Tax Rate: 37% Interest from Convertible bond: 69M at 4% annual rate Number of Shares: 28.7M Maybe beating the estimate by 3 cents will provide the "catalyst". On the subject of the earnings report, I think Vantive should list on the report the exact amount of interest expense that is added to the earnings. It's already confusing enough to deal with the effect of convertible bond. And it does not help by leaving the number mismatches with a simple math division. (EPS not equals to earnings / number of shares.)

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