The other Nasdaq update...
Posted By: Bearbelly
Date: Thursday, 5 April 2001, at 10:23 p.m.
No buy signal yet, but pretty close; and I have a feeling that we won't have an answer by tomorrow's close -- another "what
now?" weekend for ALL market participants.
The rally will most probably continue (with some tradeable sell-offs intermixed) because:
1) Today was a 96% UP volume day -- this is NOT typical of bear market rallies.
2) Short-term indicators are barely starting to move up from oversold conditions.
3) Daily stochastics crossed for UP.
4) Daily MACD shows a bullish divergence.
5) Selling-vacuum IS in effect, and it most certainly was felt today.
I'm not sure yet about the interrmediate-term indicators -- they just initiated a bullish divergence similar to the one in December,
but it is not yet confirmed.
We've almost completed 3 waves (5-3-5) at the close, with a pop up most likely in the morning, and meeting the first line of
resistance at NDX 1540-1590 and COMPX 1800-1850. At that point we will have a tradeable sell-off that will determine whether
this was a bear market rally, or the beginning of a very strong move UP. The bullish case says that wave 4 will be a zigzag
(sharp) correction because wave 2 was a flat (Guideline of alternation) and followed by wave 5 to new highs for the rally, while
the bearish case says that the rally was a zigzag correction, and we now initiate a 5-wave structure down to new lows. The line
in the sand for the bulls is currently at NDX 1470 and COMPX 1735.
OCIHIR,
Bearbelly |
