The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5?°C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5?°C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5?°C.

June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5?°C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies a failure to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below this threshold. Here we show that in climate model simulations, the long-term Paris Agreement target is usually crossed well before such a string of unusually warm temperatures occurs.

The loss of ecosystem carbon (the sum of vegetation, litter, and soil carbon) may occur in a permafrost region under mitigation pathways, which could reduce the efficiency of carbon dioxide removal. Here, we investigate changes in permafrost under net-zero and negative emissions, based on idealized emission-driven simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. While acting as a net ecosystem carbon sink during most of the positive emission phase, permafrost becomes a net ecosystem carbon source just before reaching net-zero and negative emissions. Permafrost slowly recovers, especially in regions with high organic carbon content, and net ecosystem carbon loss persists until the end of simulations, resulting in a cumulative net ecosystem carbon loss of approximately 14 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in both scenarios. In addition, methane emissions increase under net-zero and negative emissions, due to the irreversibility of the inundated areas. We conclude that the permafrost ecosystem carbon loss may continue under net-zero and negative emissions, which could hinder climate change mitigation efforts.

As air traffic rebounds fr m its large drop during the Covid-19 crisis, civil aviation needs to continue addressing its climate impact. Knowledge of aircraft trajectories is essential for an accurate assessment of the CO2 (and non-CO2) climate impact of aviation. Here we combine an aircraft trajectory optimization algorithm and a global database of aircraft movements to quantify the impact of airspace restrictions due to conflict zones on CO2 emissions. Among current restrictions, we show that the Russian ban of its airspace to Western airlines following the invasion of Ukraine has the largest impact. Our analysis reveals an initial reduction of flights to and from East Asia that would have crossed the Russian territory. Routes then gradually reopened by making a detour, which led to an average increase in fuel consumption of 13% on the affected routes, with a greater impact for flights to and from Europe (14.8%) compared to flights to and from North America (9.8%). Although these flights represent only a small fraction of the daily flights, the large detours have increased global aviation CO2 emissions by 1% in 2023, equivalent to a quarter of the yet-to-be-achieved efficiency gain potential from improved air traffic management.

Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability, will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial-design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (-16% gross primary production), carbon pools (-35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (-33% and -22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively).

As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, humans face new challenges to long-term survival. Humans will likely be battling these problems long after 2100, when many climate projections currently end. A more forward-thinking view on our science and its direction may help better prepare for the future of our species. Researchers may consider datasets the basic units of knowledge, whose preservation is arguably more important than the articles that are written about them. Storing data and code in long-term repositories offers insurance against our uncertain future. To ensure open data are useful, data must be FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) and be complete with all appropriate metadata. By embracing open science practices, contemporary scientists give the future of humanity the information to make better decisions, save time and other valuable resources, and increase global equity as access to information is made free. This, in turn, could enable and inspire a diversity of solutions, to the benefit of many. Imagine the collective science conducted, the models built, and the questions answered if all of the data researchers have collectively gathered were organized and immediately accessible and usable by everyone. Investing in open science today may ensure a brighter future for unborn generations.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (the Department) considers carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) as essential for the UK to meet its net-zero targets. In introducing its current CCUS program, it has learned lessons from two previous failed attempts. Progress in introducing the new program has been slow. The Department will need to find alternative ways of reducing emissions if there are further delays in agreeing support for more projects, or if the technology’s performance is not as good as it expects. If the projects are successful, the Department has not considered how it could maximize the financial benefits for taxpayers and consumers. The Department will need to revisit its value–for–money case for supporting CCUS regularly, taking account of changes in the scientific understanding of carbon capture and storage and the impact this may have on the assumptions underpinning its program.

While climate denial historically defined opposition to climate action, the discourse is increasingly shifting into new territory online: climate delayism. These delay tactics leverage discourses that accept the existence of climate change, but downplay its urgency and sow doubt in potential solutions. What’s more, the rapid spread of mis- and disinformation online—and platforms’ inability and recent overt unwillingness to regulate it has supercharged these climate delay narratives. But climate disinformation is not just a social media problem. It operates through a complex and historically situated network of powerful actors with vested interests and is woven into the fabric of Canadian nationhood and identity itself. We need to understand how climate delay and disinformation narratives circulate and find resonance in our broader information ecosystem. To that end, the authors analyze Canadians’ response to prominent climate delay narratives and presents key findings and policy implications for the burgeoning problem of climate disinformation in Canada.

In communities across Canada, the race is on to build millions of new homes as quickly as possible to improve housing affordability. While the speed of construction is important, it is also essential to consider where homes will be built. With climate change driving more frequent and severe extreme weather and weather-related hazards, building homes in safe locations is essential—because the most affordable home is one that does not have to be rebuilt after a disaster. To meet housing affordability targets, an estimated 5.8 million homes need to be built by 2030—a 35 percent increase to Canada’s existing housing stock. But if existing policies do not change, hundreds of thousands of these new homes will be built in areas at risk from floods and wildfires, putting Canadians in harm’s way and costing billions of dollars every year. The authors show how Canada can meet its housing needs while keeping people safe in a changing climate. It is the first of its kind in Canada to quantify the economic risks of building new homes in the paths of wildfires and floods.

The ability of the United Nations to adapt to changing humanitarian, security, human rights, and development conditions at all levels remains a critical challenge, as China has also asserted itself with the bureaucracies of UN agencies, organs, and among member-states around the globe. To respond to climate-related challenges on the Tibetan Plateau, attainable, realistic reforms and strategies must be implemented to repurpose the UN. For example, UN agencies must move beyond organizational designs and strategies that involve “siloed” or one dimensional thinking. Rather, climate change must become part and parcel of the development process from initial inputs to final outcomes.

The author examines two international migration pathways for Tuvaluans: one forthcoming and one proposed, for how well they align with Tuvalu’s goal of ensuring Tuvaluan self-determination and sovereignty in-situ. Climate change poses a habitability risk to Tuvalu associated with sea-level rise, A forthcoming migration pathway, between Tuvalu and Australia under the new Tuvalu-Australia Falepili Union Treaty is partially in harmony with Tuvaluan sovereignty. The second, the suggestion by Rising Nations Initiative to relocate the entire national population of Tuvalu does not harmonise well with the goal of maintaining Tuvaluan sovereignty in place.

The 2024 advisory opinion issued by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), recognizing GHG emissions as marine pollution, marks a pivotal intersection in maritime and climate governance. The opinion, while non-binding, establishes legal obligations for states to mitigate climate-induced marine impacts, including acidification, warming, and sea-level rise. It emphasizes due diligence, transboundary impact assessments, and adherence to the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’. The opinion holds important implications for developing states, presenting both challenges and opportunities to align sustainability goals with climate commitments. By bridging the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and broader climate frameworks like the Paris Agreement, ITLOS advances international legal norms and sets a precedent for future climate litigation. The author analyses these implications, focusing on India and other Global South nations.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (the Department) considers carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) as essential for the UK to meet its net-zero targets. In introducing its current CCUS program, it has learned lessons from two previous failed attempts. Progress in introducing the new program has been slow. The Department will need to find alternative ways of reducing emissions if there are further delays in agreeing support for more projects, or if the technology’s performance is not as good as it expects. If the projects are successful, the Department has not considered how it could maximize the financial benefits for taxpayers and consumers. The Department will need to revisit its value–for–money case for supporting CCUS regularly, taking account of changes in the scientific understanding of carbon capture and storage and the impact this may have on the assumptions underpinning its program.

In Somalia, widespread energy poverty and a heavy reliance on conventional energy sources are deeply linked to ongoing conflict dynamics. Dependence on firewood and charcoal worsens environmental degradation and intensifies competition over natural resources. These challenges are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change and limited access to basic services. To address these interconnected challenges, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia is advancing rural electrification through solar power as part of a broader environmental peacebuilding strategy. The authors explore how the IOM’s approach to solar power and the facilitation of local public-private partnerships (PPPs) can support environmental peacebuilding at three levels: the community level, the local business level, and the district council level. By creating local PPP agreements to implement solar power projects, the initiatives aim to foster cooperation, reduce resource-based tensions, and strengthen government legitimacy in south-central Somalia.

A key solution to the United States soaring electrical demand—driven by unprecedented electricity needs from data centers and their booming artificial intelligence workloads, alongside other consumers—is load flexibility. Flexibility allows large electricity users to temporarily reduce consumption during periods of grid stress by shifting workloads, using on-site generation, or adjusting operations. By leveraging flexibility, new large loads can be interconnected more quickly while reducing the need for premature investment in additional power plants and transmission lines—offering a hedge against uncertainty in future electricity demand in light of the release of DeepSeek. This first-of-its-kind, national-scale analysis provides a first-order estimate of how much new flexible load could be added across the 22 largest US balancing authorities, which collectively serve 95% of the grid. The authors introduce a new concept—curtailment-enabled headroom—to describe how much additional load the grid can absorb using existing capacity, with only modest, short-duration reductions in use. The findings highlight a significant opportunity: nearly 100 GW of large new loads could be integrated with minimal impact, supporting economic growth while maintaining grid reliability and affordability.

While climate denial historically defined opposition to climate action, the discourse is increasingly shifting into new territory online: climate delayism. These delay tactics leverage discourses that accept the existence of climate change, but downplay its urgency and sow doubt in potential solutions. What’s more, the rapid spread of mis- and disinformation online—and platforms’ inability and recent overt unwillingness to regulate it has supercharged these climate delay narratives. But climate disinformation is not just a social media problem. It operates through a complex and historically situated network of powerful actors with vested interests and is woven into the fabric of Canadian nationhood and identity itself. We need to understand how climate delay and disinformation narratives circulate and find resonance in our broader information ecosystem. To that end, the authors analyze Canadians’ response to prominent climate delay narratives and presents key findings and policy implications for the burgeoning problem of climate disinformation in Canada.

Prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity — projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases — grew by over 20% globally in 2024 from 3.6 terawatts (TW) to 4.4 TW, only half of what is needed for global tripling renewable goals. Outside of China and the Group of 7 (G7) rich nations, only half of solar and wind projects designated to come online in 2024 were actually completed on time. Global operating capacity increased by 14% in 2024, as at least 240 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar and wind came online. Despite their 45% share of global gross domestic product (GDP), G7 countries are building only 10% of planned solar and wind projects.

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.