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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: GST who wrote (153363)12/5/2004 10:26:55 AM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
The next election in Canada is going to be very interesting. The minority government of the Liberals (more a name than an accurate reflection of their policy - both major parties are somewhat conservative at least on the business side) will not be able to push Missile Defense on the electorate and survive; on the other hand, no one will trust the Conservative Party in this regard either.

There was an election in the summer; the minority position of the Liberals means that it can be defeated on a vote of confidence by the opposition members if they choose to gang up and do so, potentially forcing the country back to another election much sooner than the normal 3.5 - 5 years (no fixed dates).

What may just happen is the country supports the New Democratic Party (the farthest left of them all) in larger numbers than historically they've seen.

I doubt too many average Canadians were impressed with the visit. Missile Defense was raised constantly by Bush, despite the matter not being on any agenda. Bush, in a private meeting, is said to have castigated the leader of the Conservative Party for being wishy washy on the issue (that man, Stephen Harper, is walking a tightrope as it is, in advance of the next election).

The impression most Canadians will have is that Bush came looking for something and will hold carrots in front of the government: opening the borders to Canadian beef and resolving the Softwood Lumber dispute (which Canada has won one WTO tribunal after another).

If it comes to that then I think Canada should do a little shopping of oil and gas resources to China perhaps. Carrots work both ways.
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