Health Groups Warn of Death Toll from Iraq War
Tue Nov 12,11:13 AM ET
Jim Lobe,OneWorld US
A United States-led military attack against Iraq could result directly in the
deaths of tens of thousands of civilians, warns a new report released Tuesday
by a trio of leading global health groups.
Drawing on the 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites)
experience, along with other recent war scenarios, the
groups--Boston-based International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War, Physicians for Social
Responsibility, and the London-based Medact--found
that as many as 80,000 civilians could be killed in a
conventional assault on the capital Baghdad and four
of Iraq's other major cities - Basra, Diyala, Kirkuk, and
Mosul.
That estimate excludes the likely toll for Iraqi military
forces, which, the report warned, could equal the
number of civilian deaths. Iraqi wounded, both civilian
and military, could well exceed half a million in a conventional war, according
to their 14-page report, 'Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental
Costs of War on Iraq,' which stressed that post-war health effects could take
as many as 200,000 more lives in Iraq.
"In an era where images of combat are beamed from aircraft, it is too easy to
forget about the direct, physical consequences of war," said Amy Sisley, a
professor of surgery at the University of Maryland. "Bombs deafen, blind and
blow apart people, riddling them with shrapnel, glass and debris."
The report has been issued only days after the United Nations (news - web
sites) Security Council voted unanimously for Baghdad to comply with tough
UN weapons inspections. Non-compliance, according to diplomats, will
almost certainly lead to a U.S.-led attack against Iraq. Already Washington is
reported to have shipped thousands of tons of military equipment to the Gulf
region in preparation.
According to major U.S. newspapers, President George W. Bush (news - web
sites) has committed to a war plan that would include sustained bombing of
key communications and military targets and simultaneous commando
attacks on suspected missile and chemical and biological weapons sites.
These, say reports, would be followed by ground offensives designed to seize
key areas of northern, western, and southern Iraq before any advance to
Baghdad.
Briefing the press, U.S. military planners stressed that they hoped Hussein's
government would collapse in the initial stages of the campaign, so as to
minimize casualties. They said that, unlike the 1991 Gulf war, when "smart
bombs" were used sparingly, this time Washington would place greater
reliance on their use.
The report projected that a Hiroshima-sized nuclear bomb on Baghdad could
kill between 66,000 and 360,000 people. In a worst-case scenario, a
modern-day thermonuclear bomb could exterminate between 306,000 and 3.6
million.
Based on previous studies, the report estimated that between approximately
142,000 and 206,000 Iraqis died as a direct result of the Gulf War and the
internal fighting that ensued. However, it cautions that a fresh conflict is likely
to be "much more intense and destructive."
Apart from the immediate physical casualties, the report adds that, barring
the elite, few Iraqis would be able to withstand the physical and psychological
damage of a conflict.
The report also outlines the possible impact on neighboring countries,
particularly if there is an exodus of refugees from Iraq. This would be
aggravated if oil wells in Iraq were fired, as in the 1991 Gulf war, or Baghdad
launched chemical or biological weapons against U.S. troops. |
