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Strategies & Market Trends : AMAZON.COM RIDICULOUSLY OVERVALUED BY ANY MODEL (AMZN)
AMZN 244.22+9.6%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: ratan lal who wrote (136)12/31/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: T. Pascal  Read Replies (2) of 182
 
>>Are we in the middle or the end of the INTERNET stock run ???<<

As I said in another column, the short sellers are the very ones who do themselves in. Common knowledge is that short-sellers drive the price down. WRONG! Short-sellers are the only share holders (excluding options-owners) who must buy at some future time. Whenever the price drops down on some piece of garbage like AMZN, the short-sellers bump into each other trying to buy. It reminds me of the famous song sung to the tune of "Old Saint Nick":

<cite>UP goes the stock price, quick, quick, quick. DOWN goes the profits just as quick.</cite>

Similarly (now excluding holders and looking at options), the options holders create buying pressure with their puts (some of them naked! Scandalous :).

The fact is that AMZN will not decline until the short-sellers and options people, and the buyers lose interest in the stock. You simply can't go against that much attention and demand (in either direction). You're going to get toasted.

As for whether we're at the end or the middle, I say middle. I say the stock(s) of internet trash won't crumble until at least summer of '99. You read it here first. In the meantime, look to see AMZN actually reach $400 or even $800 due to the pressures I've described. In-frigging-sanity. But what are you going to do?
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