KG4,
It's nice to have a few of AOLers contribute to this thread. As usual, your lack understanding of a few related issues is appalling, not to mention those people on the AOL thread!
They have dsl, which T does not...and what about wireless broadband??
T has DSL strategy, in fact ATHM has too. With both of the 1996 Telecommunication Act and the way DSL network structured (it's different from cable, and that's why the open access in copper wire is different from open access in cable wire), even you can be DSL service provide. There is an article talking about the current situation about DSL, please go over it with patience (there are 7 subtitles).
upside.com
What typical errors AOLers committing are...
1. AOL will be thriving in DSL.
DSL is available in many areas in this country already, but none of them officially from AOL yet. You have to close your eyes and think the reasons. If AOL/DSL proven to be successful, then AOL with Excite acquisition and reach a deal with ATHM/MSOs will start making a lot of sense; otherwise, this whole thing about Excite is nothing but Kevin Prigel's market scheme to attract viewers to his site. I have followed him for a while, his analysis on AOL, ATHM, AAPL and INTC are again - appalling! I don't have problem with him at all because everybody has to find a way to make a living.
2. AOL is using DSL to compete with ATHM.
I have said it before, in reality, at this very moment, AOL service on the DSL has no difference from AOL on the cable. Both are dumb pipes to AOL, AOL as a content provider, there shouldn't be any difference on which pipe now, tomorrow, or till both of us go to the graves. In fact, I think ATHM can offer better deal to AOL than DSL can.
3. 18~20 millions users of AOL is everything, and everybody has to come to AOL.
I don't have to argue with you on the issue. Now, we are heading into October, and it's quarterly reporting time again. Both AOL and Yahoo will report in two to three weeks. Don't worry about the actual numbers from both companies, because they both will be OK. What I want you to be really sensitive to is the moods of the whole market around the time each company report. Follow the news media and the chat rooms on the Internet... Compare them, you will know what I mean and it's fun to watch.
Now, there is no need to go over wireless with you because if you can make the AOL/DSL logic to work in your brain, AOL/wireless follow exactly the same logic. $1.5 billion involvement in wireless is peanut in that industry and it can only fool guys like you. Oh, I almost forgot to ask you this... where and when is AOL@satellite?
Could Excite's future go as you wish. Maybe yes; I am not in T/ATHM management so I can't decide for them. But in my humble opinion, it just doesn't make any business sense. |
