>I check out the Yahoo board sometimes. It is wild. Makes me think that there are more than a few day traders who like the action on this stock. Some present themselves as persistent short sellers, but may not be. Boards like this were common in the 1998-2000 period, but uncommon now.<
I see the Yahoo! Board as living up to its name – mainly Yahoos there.
BTW, I have not been active here for a while. But I intend to “return”; before the end of July, probably. I am retired, but I plan several other activities for the summer.
>Having lived with the stock for a few months, I tend to believe:
1. That this management team is too slick in its news reports.<
I disagree. I think it is just that their products and their marketing situation are complicated.
>2. That demand for their products has very little to do with end consumer demand. While the drug companies try to reach the end consumer directly with advertising, for this sort of product the consumer is still dependent on what the physician tells him. In other words, cancer patients demanding access to these products has little to do with their purchase. Purchasing decisions are made by committees, and many on the committees have vested interests in not initiating a big change in the treatment of cancer, and furthermore there is the somewhat arbitrary budgeting system, usually funded by government or large insurance companies. From an insurance company's perspective there is no profit in extending someone's life by 6 months at a cost of $25,000, for instance. There may be room for that to change with the MicroThermX microwave ablation systems. I can see the possibility for independent doctors here and abroad to set up shop for a one-service shop, similar to the way that Lasik eye doctors have set up shop. There are enough people who would pay for the treatment out of pocket if they understood a value to it and their own insurance would not pay.<
I agree with all that – and add that most doctors by far are practitioners-of-long-established therapies, not pioneers.
>3. It seems that the technology is worthwhile, but transforming that to sales will take a lot of time due to the factors mentioned above.
4. My guess is that the Terumo deal is going to have a slow ramp up.<
I disagree. An important factor is that Interventional Oncology is growing rapidly -- meaning that there will be a substantial number of doctors newly practicing heat-ablation; and these folk are relatively good candidates for using the best equipment (or buying same or seeking use of same at some hospital clinic). But I am not suggesting adoption of microwave-ablation will simply “explode” – nor is that necessary for BSD M to see heavy increases in sales (remember their present anemic sales numbers – and the many new contracts for BSD-2000 series sales, as well as MTX-180-line sales). Potential sales – that can be expected to occur, over time – are vastly more than at present. Microwave-based cancer therapy is properly seen as a new (4th) Pillar of Cancer Therapy (as loudly claimed by two groups of leading doctors!) – not just another pill or better knife or yet another type of ionizing radiation!.
>5. Best result for BSDM investors is a takeover of the company. Could well happen within the next few years.<
That would be the worst thing that could happen, IMO – unless a very large offer is made. I think the potential sales, as microwave-heating based therapy is adopted in numbers consistent with the very successful trials, will support stock values in the over-$100 range. And, I believe the growth rate of the stock will be rapid enough to top fend off pressures from INVESTORS for a company sale.
BSD M appears to be pursuing other new products, and expecting large growth. That is my view, and I expect to hold BSDM for many years. |
