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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: Staff who wrote (1601)11/15/1997 3:07:00 PM
From: Cage Rattler   of 5676
 
Staff:

More than a little contemplation is required for your challenge. If I had the solution, I'd be living in a warmer climate. Then again I spend geometry class trying to trisect an angle - learned a lot, but suffered a Pratt fall in the process.

My initial response to your coin toss question is not original, and follows the maturation of odds folly. Ruling out such stuff as the coin landing on it's edge, the odds on any single toss are 1/2. However, can we rightfully assume randomness under real circumstance or only approach it theoretically by increased sampling? The probability in real-life market situations seem beyond anyone's understanding. Herein may lie the strength of the "contrarian," who gains an unrecognized "payoff edge" betting against the heard.

I am not a mystically oriented person. I admit total ignorance of astrological matters. Some market texts I have read allege that horoscopes have influenced investor decisions since, and probably before, J. P. Morgan and Livermore. I can not dispute the value of such mystical concepts, but profess my agnostic attitude and therefore an inability to debate using such presuppositions.

After considering your reply I am questioning the assumptions echoed in my posting to you. Perhaps the trends we observe are illusions, and little more than random combination misinterpreted like 8-heads in a row during coin tossing? I hope I'm better at picking random socks.

Your challenge cought me off guard! More to come.

Ciao, Ted
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