Hope local res Paul A, doesn't mind me posting this message I found of his on A@Ps thread, but it is a worthy post for the other side.
Note I said in my early post trading is 80% psychological well here is the 20% logical argument for more selling...
"Zen, I gotta tell you for what its worth- im the exact opposite opinion.. The one sector I feel that will go much MUCH lower is the semis..
Its what I do for a living, so im not just throwing darts at a board.. WE will be hearing from Intel next week, and im sure Cisco will issue its warning next week as well.. This should give us a better idea what to expect. I see a ton of supply, and little demand.. Sure- inventory levels are coming down a bit as NT said, but thats simply because they arent buying anything!!! Sales are not picking up IMO and until I see that trend change, I see more pressure on the prices, and alot of consolidation. I could care a less how lousy the charts look, and how low the PEs are.. This sector got a free ride on the back of the internet, something nobody really figured on.. Now that the trend in that sector has slowed- chips are once again a whores game.. Just 2 weeks ago the media told me that inventories were shrinking and prices on SDRAM were firming.. WElp- they jacked up the prices for a week, and of course as expected- greed took over and everyone was trying to get that inflated price all at once.. We just saw a dramatic drop in both Sdram and Flash memory this week.. Be very careful..
Im short MU as well..."
Just wanted to add my own 10 cents worth however. I too have been involved with the technology side as well, and feel that chips will become pretty much ubiquitous as they start propping up everywhere. Inernet use hasn't yet reached it's full potential and as the pipe of broadband widens, bottlenecks strealine, more uses will become evident. Then again, I am a fish... |
