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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL
WSTL 5.9000.0%9:30 AM EST

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To: P314159d who wrote (16354)6/5/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: Andreas Helke  Read Replies (1) of 21342
 
About trading - if you are successful like I was for about a year with Westell even after tax it sure beats holding a long term position on its way down. But the end of my Westell trading was as follows selling some of my shares at $11,875 buying half of that back for $13,46875 and then selling it again at $5,6875. Such trading quickly gets prohibitively expensive.

About MGI Pharma MOGN - MOGN is a profitable niche pharma company. If it did not have the development expenses of MGI114 it would be substantially profitable. They intend to keep full ownership rights of MGI114 for the USA but are looking for a partner for european sales. They are already looking for about 2 years and as a profitable company they can afford to wait for a better deal than what has been offered so far.

If MGI114 fails this will present a serious bump in the road for the stock price but much less of a bump for the company which is not dependent on MGI114 success. If MGI114 turns into an also run cancer drug that will give MOGN earnings a nice boost. If MGI114 turns into a blockbuster than this will transform MOGN into a leading biotech company with a multi billion market cap compared to $160M today.

I like this combination of essentially no long term downside and huge potential upside. Ligand is similar in its risk / reward. It has one of the most extensive product pipelines of any biotech company and I expect that they eventually seriously benefit from their huge development effort.

In contrast to most other biotech companies that have to license their products to a pharma company to be able to afford the huge development costs and then typically only get a 10 to 15% royalty Ligand has kept full ownership of its compounds for cancer indications and finances the development by giving away against a royalty and milestone payments the rights for the use of the same or similar compounds for other indications like diabetes treatment and osteoporosis prevention.

I don't think that biotech stocks are good trading candidates. You always have to expect bad news from clinical trials or failed product approvals. As a trader the only reliable way to make money with biotech is to short the price spikes from the latest news about curing mouse or rat tumors especially if those news are on the front page of the New York Times.

Andreas
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