Bush's southern flank
The leaders of Spain, Portugal and Italy are backing the United States over Iraq despite growing popular assent. Will their gamble pay off?
Joana Mateus and Sunder Katwala
Sunday April 6, 2003
Jacques Chirac's opposition to the war on Iraq has made him something of a hero in France. Yet other European leaders seem determined to take on their own people over Iraq - and not just Tony Blair in Britain. George Bush can also point for strong support from a southern European flank, where the governments of Spain, Portugal and Italy have all taken a firmly pro-American stance despite widespread popular dissent.
No single motive unites Silvio Berlusconi, Jose Maria Aznar and Durao Barroso in their backing for Bush. But all are politicians of the right who, despite a European commitment, believe that they also have strong ideological affinities with the Bush administration. And each believes that they can play a greater role in world affairs as an ally of America than by endorsing the French vision of a Europe that counters the United States in search of a new 'multipolar' world order.
Beyond that, the goals and strategies of these leaders vary, as do the concrete gains that they believe they can make from their pro-American stance varies. These can come in the form of a share in the reconstruction of Iraq or stronger economic ties with the United States. Yet by emphasising the way that Europe is divided not just between east and west or left and right, the Mediterranean trio may have done much to reshape the debate, which must follow when Europe seeks to stitch itself back together.
Italy's Berlusconi backs the United States primarily for ideological reasons. His support for the Americans has been so strong as to sometimes embarrass those who he seeks to back. Shortly after 9/11, his gaffe asserting the need to demonstrate the "superiority of the western culture over the inferior Muslim one" was a major own goal for those anxious to stress that the "war on terror" did not involve any clash of civilisations, leading to Berlusconi's views being quickly disowned.
Yet he has been considerably quieter over Iraq as he realises that his government has little concrete to offer the United States over Iraq. His ministers have been keen to stress that Italy's support for the coalition is "political not military" with defence minister Franco Frattini staunchly stating that it would "not send a single man to combat". With popular opinion in Italy running strongly against the war and his government having much else on its plate, including opposition attempts to curtail his media empire, Berlusconi has seemed keen not to provoke additional ire over the war.
If Berlusconi is playing it safe, the same can't be said for Spain's Aznar. "We don't want to throw Spain into a corner with countries that don't count," he has stated, believing that being among America's allies can help catapult Spain into the first rank of diplomacy and possibly gain him an invitation to join the exclusive G8 economic club.
But, with 91 per cent of the public opinion against him, the Spanish PM now faces criticism from within his own party. Felix Pastor, a former party president, has accused him of shattering PP's mission of becoming a more temperate, centre-right party. "The idea of humanitarian, Christian People's party has been blown away," he told El Mundo newspaper. "The Spanish people have the right to expect their government to keep them away from all wars", says Pastor.
Yet Aznar's stance fits strongly with the political persona he has sought to develop. His uncompromising attitude towards domestic separatist groups like ETA has made it easier for him to support America's "war on terror". Some political analysts believe he may also be motivated by his own political future. "He has no intention of running for the next elections so he's not worried about popularity. But an international political career? Now that is a different game altogether. He could very well be eyeing it and the support of the Americans would be crucial," says executive director of Portuguese newspaper Diario de Noticias, Maria de Lurdes Vale.
Aznar's stance has made it easier for Portuguese Prime Minister Durao Barroso to back America. Being isolated in Europe has become a secondary consideration to isolation within Iberia: "Durao is sticking to Spain not to be left out. He wants to be a part of an Iberian defence project, which, in terms of security, trusts NATO more than the EU," says Maria de Lurdes Vale.
Portugal may have felt that by joining Bush it too would be seen as a big player. A shame then that most newspapers around the world cropped Durao out of the photo of the Azores "war council", as he stood next to Bush, Blair and Aznar. Portugal may win praise from its coalition allies - for example in Jack Straw's claim that Portugal is the United Kingdom's "oldest ally". But few in Portugal believe that the talk amounts to very much: "Barroso is trying to put us on the map but he is doing it in all the wrong ways" argues Francisco Louca, the deputy leader of the left wing Bloco de Esquerda Portuguese party, who is seen as one of the leading intellectual thinkers of the Portuguese left.
So far the opposition parties in southern Europe seem to have made more concrete gains from the Iraq issue than the Mediterranean governments. The issue has been a godsend for the parties of the left, which had, in all three countries, been demoralised by the fallout from their own days in power. The left has done all they can to organise the anti-war protests which have re-energised political activism. For the first time since Aznar took power in 1996, his government trails the socialists in the opinion polls. In Portugal and Italy, the left has also made gains, albeit less dramatically, and have put their divisions aside. But for how long? "The left is still divided amongst themselves. The next general election is not for another three years time so the war - even a long one - may not have any significant impact unless things go really wrong," says Francesco Grillo, of the Italian think tank Vision.
And if the left fails to capitalise on the anti-war sentiment, the southern European pro-Bush alliance may suffers less politically than many would expect. And, whatever the domestic consequences, the greatest fallout may turn out to be on the European stage.One day soon European diplomats will have to work out how to put the pieces back together after the biggest public diplomatic spat for a generation. Those like Blair, Aznar, Berlusconi and Barroso can hardly deny that they have acted against the mainstream of European public opinion, even if they reject the charge that they are America's puppets as simplistic. And yet the argument about 'who split Europe' is far from straightforward.
Some in southern Europe have felt that their views have tended to be marginalized in recent years: that the Franco-German alliance will decide for Europe and that it will be assumed that the rest will follow. The divisions within Europe over Iraq have been a very visible reminder that there is rarely a single, simple European view. That may make getting agreement more difficult in future - but at least it has been established that a European debate does require everybody's voice should be heard.
Joana Mateus is a Portugese journalist and has worked for Diario Digita and Diario Economico. Sunder Katwala is internet editor of The Observer. |
