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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Suma who wrote (16696)4/16/2006 12:43:41 PM
From: Rarebird   of 542453
 
>>64 percent of Americans "want all or some of the U.S. troops in Iraq to come home now," according to a new USA Today/Gallup POLL.<<

There's a lot of discontent in America. Just 30 percent of the US public approves of the job performance of the GOP-led Congress. Just 35 percent of the public approves of Bush's handling of Iraq. Only 40 percent of the American public approves of Bush's performance on foreign policy and the war on terror. Just 36 percent of the public approves of Bush's overall job performance, his lowest ever rating. This is a Katrina like political hurricane poised to hit Washington and the White House in November when Congress has its mid-term election. Presently, this political storm is only to be seen in the polling being done across the US. It has not hit the political shore yet. It will in November. The Republican Party is facing a potential catastrophe.

Wall Street is clearly giving the President the benefit of the doubt here. I wouldn't call this an act of complacency. These markets have seen the President resurrect himself before. To be sure, President Bush has been placed in a political strait jacket by the dire need to try to hang on to as many seats as possible in both the House and the Senate. If the Democrats win Congress in November, then the chairmanship of the committees would go to them. What would follow would be an endless stream of investigations, all armed with full subpoena powers. That would make the remaining two years of Bush's presidency a form of political torture that very likely would end up in full-scale impeachment proceedings. This is the potential situation which is pushing President Bush towards a US military solution in the Middle East.

I think the presidential cycle may very well invert here with these markets rallying very strongly into October and then selling off if the Democrats regain control of Congress. Longer term that would be quite bearish.
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