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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Shelia Jones who wrote (16756)3/26/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail   of 95453
 
Sheila,
Though I'm holding, I wouldn't want to represent that as a guarantee that we'll be up tomorrow. There is always the possibility of profit-taking, a big move down in the larger market, etc. My confidence is highest around the offshore drilling companies, since I think they have the best combination of predictability and major growth to improve the case for investing in them as seriously undervalued companies. I think trying to sell stock that you think is undervalued in hopes that it will sell off depends upon the selling version of the greater fool theory. You have to assume there are people who are bigger idiots than you are that are not only willing to sell an undervalued stock but willing to sell it at prices lower than the price you're willing to sell it so that you'll get another chance to buy it back at a lower level. Granted that since early November, people around here have experienced a lot of that happening as the drillers' stock prices have dropped. But while it is possible, I don't think it is reasonable to assume that it should or will happen. If you sell, you run the risk of missing the train or at least having to pay more for the ticket to get back on board.
I guess the best I can offer is to say I'm pretty heavily committed to offshore drillers and have been buying more recently (today I bought more ESV). But I'm not doing it on the assumption that it will be up tomorrow--just that it will be up significantly one month, six months or a year from now. That's my bet, and you have to decide whether to go with it or fade it.
good luck,
Baird
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