2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 413.19

+1.1%

Jan 6 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169988)	3/29/2021 12:40:43 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) of 219059

Seeing multiple predictions tonight for a ramp in volatility tomorrow. I think the tendency when events like this occur is to want to dismiss it as "a rogue trader" as at Nomura, or a "one off hedge fund issue" as at Archegos. But as you can see in the Archegos case, there are significant impacts on others when big errors occur...and what those impacts are is not over transparent. Short term impacts on the market... but also... delayed effects... The leverage in the unwind might have unexpected effects. Who was the source of the $ behind the trade is only one question... as many others were riding the same horses ? Viacom CBS at $100 from $40 in December, without any obvious reason, is not evidence of a rational market function ? Back at $40 now might be a proper correction... in that one stock... undoing the last three months error in excess... But I would be slow to dismiss it as "just a one off"... without knowing what the ripples will mean... We will probably find out in trading this week... but "the plan" appears it isn't panning out that well. Pandemics not cooperating and going away... but stimulus money that can't change its timing... and ships demonstrating that even "too big to fail" is not insurance against things going sideways... The run up before the close on Friday... was not an indication of the sort making me think I really want to participate on the long side in the market just now ? If I also can't participate on the short side... because it is obvious that the market is rigged and fully intending to hurt you if you believe stock prices are too high... and see indications the market wants to correct ? If "long" and "short" are both wrong... the option that leaves is "out"... or otherwise more than two dimensional somehow... more physical in hand, less digital in trade... all of which is fairly consistent with "wait for it"... which I still prefer to sustain along with manageable and minimized risks... Cash soared in value this week... which is being blamed by some for driving the ripples... that said to be driving silver prices lower... Currency market influences seem to have not been considered that much in the analysis I've seen from most about the stock market, though. After the insane ramp before the close on Friday... vertically from 3907 to 3967 in E Mini S&P Futures, in the last thirty minutes accelerating into the close ? Zerohedge comments ' we hope this isn't what the Fed means by "price stability" as a snark, I think... but the evidence I see, first noted as "dropping the lug nuts" and a couple of other similarly extreme instances in over-reactions recently... has me considering that they truly have rounded the bend... and now believe more aggressive policy direction, even if resulting in irrational whipsaws in pricing being imposed by their interventions... is the best use of the tools they have...? Ham-fisted... at first... but rather than "settling in" policy control now seems to be gravitating more toward angrier side of bi-polar... perhaps on its way to a full blown psychotic break... ? What I get from it is... "this a really, really, dangerous market"... I don't see any reason apparent in publicly available information on Friday right before the close... that anyone would be panic buying S&P Futures contracts ? Is someone at the Fed front-running policy... ?

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next