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Technology Stocks : Advent - Portfolio Management Software
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To: Turs who wrote (14)9/7/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Charlie Smith  Read Replies (1) of 27
 
Turs:

Guess nobody is here anymore.

I've followed this company since the IPO, and was one of the first buyers of the old ProPort package from Stephanie DiMarco back in 1984. They get a premium price for everything they sell due to the pricing umbrella put up by the service bureaus (CheckFree APL, ADP, etc.). Also, there is little real competition in portfolio management software outside of the under-featured and under-promoted Centerpiece product from Schwab.

Regarding the stock, if what I'm hearing from several other portfolio managers is true, their sales and earnings are about to take off. It seems that many in their current customer base of over 5000 have not yet upgraded from Version One of Axys to Version Two, let alone Version Three which was just released. Combine this with the fact that version one of Axys had a bug in it which allowed use of the Reporting module on an unlimited number of workstations, even if the subscriber had a license for only a few users on the main module. So ADVS is just about to see a big upgrade wave as users finally migrate from V1 to V3, as well as hundreds of new licensed users who had previously used the reporting module "free". My guess is these forces will push their annual revenue growth rate up from the current healthy 44 percent level back above 50 percent, and perhaps to 60 percent or more for the next few quarters. Importantly, the deferred revenue line should zoom up as well. The stock has corrected back from the $50 level to $45 or so, and now sells at only 30 times my estimate of $1.50 for next year.

Charlie Smith
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