Good numbers J. It made me dig this up, because your new numbers don't jive with Worldwide sales. Your numbers are US sales, only. Still good to know.
Remember when you dug PC sales numbers up? Your work and my assumptions still look good..............................
exchange2000.com
To: J Fieb (14170 )
From: John Rieman Apr 20 1997 10:51AM EST
Reply #14209 of 17346
Good numbers J. 1997 PC market is 84M. In 1998, I would guess that the corporate market penatration, of DVD-ROM, will be lower than consumer PC market. The consumer is 1/3rd of the PC market?(I don't remember) Some companies may find it useful for training and high graphics applications. Let's say PC numbers grow to 90M units in 1998. If the cost of adding DVD-ROM is over $200, we may see 20% of the PCs shipping with DVD, 18M. If the cost is under $200, wow!
In looking at the added cost, you need to subtract the CD-ROM that you pull out(backward compatible). CD-R will provide strong competition until DVD-RAM is affordable. These numbers don't include the upgrade market. There is an installed base of 72.6M computers sold in 95, 96, 97(33% of your totals for the three years) to cunsumers. We'll take out the DVD equiped units sold in 1997.
4Q, 1997. About 30% of 84M units will ship. 25.2M. 1/3 to consumers= 8.3M units x 20% = 1.7M DVD equiped units. Alex says 50% = .85M. ASP may be as low as $25 = $21.25M in new revenue for CUBE.
That also would mean the total 1997 market is over 2.5M units.
Lets call the installed base 70M units. How many consumers want DVD will little software avalible this year? I can't see many.
1998, I think I would rather buy CD-R for an upgrade. Lets say 10%(just a wild guess) of the base up grades by Dec. 98 = 7M units.
It look's to me like the OEM market is bigger than the upgrade market.
These figures are only based on J Fieb's computer market research, and the assumptions that were stated, herein. In no way should they be seen as an accurate analysis of the PC-DVD market. Please use this data for entertainment purposes, only. Don't try this at home. |
